Conservative Moves Past Republican in Three-Way N.Y. House Race

Democrat Bill Owens is in a statistical time with Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, leading him 33 percent to 32 percent, with Republican state Sen. Dede Scozzafava fading to 21 percent in the much-watched contest for the upstate New York House seat of former GOP Rep. John McHugh,according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted Oct. 26-28. Fourteen percent are undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

In the last Research 2000 survey conducted Oct. 19-21, Owens led Scozzafava 35 percent to 30 percent with Hoffman at 23 percent and 12 percent undecided.

But since then, Hoffman has gained momentum with strong backing from conservative activists outside the district who want to draw a line in the sand with moderate Republicans. Hoffman received endorsements from Sarah Palin, Dick Armey and Fred Thompson, although Newt Gingrich, who led his own conservative revolt that led to him becoming Speaker of the House, has backed Scozzafava.

Hoffman is now beating Scozzafava among Republicans, drawing 41 percent of them while 34 percent back Scozzafava. In the last poll, Scozzafava had a 46 percent to 27 percent advantage among members of her own party.

When Hoffman supporters were asked their second choice in the race, 6 percent chose Scozzafava, 5 percent named Owens, 28 percent said they wouldn't vote and 61 percent were undecided.

Scozzafava is seen unfavorably by 46 percent and favorably by 32 percent with 22 percent expressing no opinion. Hoffman is regarded favorably by a 38 percent to 23 percent margin with 39 percent having no opinion. Owens is seen favorably by 36 percent, unfavorably by 26 percent and 38 percent have no opinion.