Obama's Blue Tide in Virginia: Aberration or Trend?

2 years ago

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A year ago Tuesday, President Obama made history as the first African-American elected to the White House. He also made history by re-defining the electoral map, most notably in Virginia, a state that hadn't voted for a Democrat since 1964.

Since then, pundits have been debating whether the Democratic sweep of 2008 was a re-aligning of America into a more-permanent Democratic majority -- as argued in a new book, The Emerging Democratic Majority by Ruy Teixeira and John Judis -- or an aberration unique to Barack Obama and the political climate.
Indeed, a new poll out by Gallup this week has taken much of the air out of the re-alignment argument, finding that conservatism in America, both as a label and on the issues, has seen a strong resurgence. This would seem to refute the argument that America is heading in a more liberal direction. However, at the same time, attitudes toward the Republican Party have hit rock-bottom, and don't seem like they are going to be rising any time soon.

The most popular topic these days seems to be the 2010 midterm elections, and, more particularly, whether the Democrats will face a moderate loss or a severe rout at the ballot box. Although it seems America is somewhat rejecting the liberal Obama administration policies, the sentiment hasn't been turning into Republican gains.

Nevertheless, one of the most interesting ways to predict America's political future is to study election results, and Tuesday's gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey will offer that glimpse into the 2010 midterms.

Translating Obama's 2008 majority into ongoing electoral success for Democrats nationwide in the coming years depends on voters coming out to vote when Obama is not on the ballot.

Virginia is a prime example of a state that can either be trending blue, or a state that just experienced an abnormal election season and is otherwise still Republican red. Republican Bob McDonnell is squaring off against Democrat Creigh Deeds for the governor's mansion, and all polls have shown that McDonnell will easily win. However, the key results to watch are the exit polls.

Obama won Virginia in 2008 with 53 percent of the vote. A look at the exit polling for Virginia that day shows what propelled his victory: a high turnout of youth voters (21 percent of total respondents), 60 percent of whom voted for our current president. Twenty percent of the electorate was African-American. Notably, 46 percent of the voters described themselves as "moderate," and this group voted for Obama by 58 percent. These big margins were off-set, however, by the white vote (70 percent of the electorate), which voted for John McCain by 60 percent.

For Democrats to succeed in this state, they'll seemingly need to replicate those numbers -- high turnout and success with young voters, black voters, and at least half of moderate voters. It will be interesting to see who turns out for Deeds. If it's only Obama who can attract these voters to the polls, the Democrats shouldn't get to excited for a permanent Democratic majority -- at least not in the Old Dominion.

Filed Under: The Cram

Tagged: bob mcdonnell, BobMcdonnell, creigh deeds, CreighDeeds, gallup, John Judis, JohnJudis, new jersey, NewJersey, Ruy Teixeira, RuyTeixeira, The Emerging Democratic Majority, TheEmergingDemocraticMajority, virginia

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