Democrats have been chortling over the Battle of NY-23, where conservatives last week succeeded in chasing a moderate Republican named Dede Scozzafava out of a special election for a congressional seat in upstate New York so conservative Doug Hoffman, who was running as a third-party candidate, could be the sole challenger to Democrat Bill Owens. The Dems gleefully observe that the GOP is now controlled by Tea Party right-wingers, such as Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin and Dick Armey, who demanded Scozzafava get out of the way for Hoffman. Such spin is predictable and has the benefit of being true. But this cataclysmic clash in the Empire State has also prompted a debate on the right over whether the Tea Party wing is destroying the GOP or saving it.

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After the pro-choice, gay-rights-supporting Scozzafava, who was chosen to run by local Republican leaders, withdrew, following a conservative campaign in favor of Hoffman, Richard Viguerie, a founder of the modern conservative moment, issued a statement loaded with gloating that also rung with right-wing disgust of the GOP establishment that had supported Scozzafava:


Even though his side had won, Viguerie was still brimming with resentment. In this fight for the soul of a much-discredited party, there's not much graciousness. (By endorsing Owens over Hoffman, Scozzafava didn't do much for Republican reconciliation.)

In the other corner was Newt Gingrich, who once was the leader of fire-breathing conservatives. He had endorsed Scozzafava, and after her departure from the race fretted aloud (to The New York Times!) that his party would face much trouble regaining a congressional majority if anytime local GOPers nominate a moderate candidate, rabid conservatives rush in to demolish that person:


So here it is: a blood-fight between conservative purists and Republican pragmatists. With the wingers winning this round, GOP moderates -- the few remaining -- will think long and hard before venturing forth, realizing that they will be in the crosshairs of the conservatives. Who wants to be pounded by Beck, Palin and their comrades just for being an in-the-middle GOPer?

The NY-23 GOP-on-GOP violence might be a one-off. But the continuing reactions signal this debate isn't likely to fade and suggest the party has hit a fork in the road. Political pundits in the future might look back at this episode and see it as the moment when the Republican Party entered a death spiral. (Think Gingrichian realism.) Then again, is it possible this intra-party insurgency could mark a turnaround for the GOP, with Republicans returning to Reaganesque roots that lead to a right-wing revival that returns the party to power? (Think Viguerian fantasy.)

A recent poll found that merely 25 percent of Americans held a positive opinion of the Republican Party -- a low-water mark never reached by the GOP during George W. Bush's administration. (The Democrats were considered favorably by 42 percent.) Will purging moderates from the GOP raise its standing with the public -- especially among swing voters, independents and young voters? That doesn't seem probable. Yet conservative purists will argue that ideological consistency (they don't call it rigidity) is necessary to finding a triumphant path. On Tuesday, Hoffman could well win this particular seat, which was previously held by a Republican. But what shall it profit the GOP to gain one congressional member if it triggers a civil war?

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