Hoffman Leads in Upstate N.Y. House Race, but Many Undecided

In the upstate New York House race that has attracted national attention, Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate now embraced by the GOP, leads Democrat Bill Owens by 41 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent backing Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who dropped out of the race on Saturday, according to a Siena College poll conducted Nov. 1. Eighteen percent are undecided, The margin of error is 4 points.

The number of undecided voters is now double what it was in Siena's last poll, when Scozzafava was still in the race.

"Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up six points since Scozzafava pulled out," said Siena's Steven Greenberg. "It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava's supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column."

Hoffman, who was quickly embraced by national Republicans after Scozzafava withdrew, now draws 63 percent of GOP voters. Owens has the support of 62 percent of Democrats. Owens holds a 43 percent to 37 percent lead over Hoffman among independents.

Hoffman is now seen favorably by 47 percent of voters and unfavorably by 33 percent, a gain over the last poll on Oct. 31, when his favorable ratio was 41-37. Owens is seen unfavorably by 38 percent and favorably by 37 percent, a turnaround from the last poll, when he was regarded favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent.

A Public Policy Polling survey released last night had given Hoffman a bigger lead and predicted a "resounding victory" for him. That poll had Hoffman ahead 54 percent to 38 percent with 8 percent undecided.