Five Things We Learned at the European Summit

A few weeks back, I posted about some incipient trouble brewing within the EU. Late last week, European leaders met for a two-day summit to push forward on a number of those procedural and policy issues. Here are five noteworthy things to come out of that meeting:

1. Tony Blair is out. Well, the suspense is over. For months, the big question over here was whether the former British prime minister would be tapped as the next EU President. Although some uncertainty lingered right down to the wire, it was not meant to be. Despite considerable lobbying by Gordon Brown for his former boss (and longtime rival) as someone who could -- as the British foreign secretary put it -- "stop traffic," a group of smaller countries, including Finland, Belgium and Sweden, wanted someone more "low key." Even the Socialists abandoned him. But don't feel too badly for Blair. After running a major world power for 10 years, he's doing quite well for himself financially.

2. Merkel and Sarkozy (pictured) are in. Speaking of low key, don't be fooled by the quiet demeanor of German Prime Minister Angela Merkel. (Yes, she once got an inadvertent shoulder massage from George W. Bush. Wince.) It was Merkel who apparently single-handedly sunk Blair's chances for the top EU post. With center-right governments now dominating center-left governments 3 to 1, Merkel felt it was time for the right to have a turn at the wheel (not to mention someone from a country inside the Eurozone). Her partner in crime? French Prime Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, also of center-right persuasion (and once -- incidentally -- a Blair supporter for the post). Merkel and Sarkozy shared a private meal on the eve of the summit, where they hammered out a common approach on Blair, tacitly demonstrating who rules the roost in Europe right now.

3. Copenhagen is on the ropes. Brown did succeed in getting EU countries to agree on setting up a global climate change fund to help developing countries adapt and obtain clean technology. But -- led by Poland -- Eastern European countries are saying that they don't really want to pay for this fund, given that they have a lower GDP. And Germany doesn't want to commit to a specific figure before seeing what other countries might be willing to contribute. (Hmm . . . I wonder who they have in mind.) The bottom line: With no specific targets and no concrete plans for raising the necessary revenue, prospects for the upcoming Copenhagen climate summit are not looking great.

4. The Lisbon Treaty Looks Likely. As I noted in my previous post, one long-standing obstacle to the Lisbon Treaty -- which amends the workings of the EU -- has been Czech President Vaclav Klaus. Klaus previously opposed the treaty for fear that ethnic Germans expelled from the former Czechoslovakia after World War II might try to reclaim their property in European courts. But in a deal negotiated last week, the Czech Republic will now be allowed to opt out of the EU's Charter of Fundamental Rights, therein securing Klaus' key demand. Pending a legal decision on Tuesday about whether or not the treaty violates the Czech Constitution, it would appear that the Lisbon Treaty will take effect on Dec. 1, following ratification in all 27 member countries.

5. The Brits are still really divided. But if Klaus is now on board, the same cannot be said of Britain, where the Lisbon Treaty remains a highly divisive issue. Last week's summit only underscored this. First, just as Gordon Brown was making his failed plea to keep the Blair candidacy alive, Conservative Party leader David Cameron openly argued against Blair, whom he labeled an "all-singing, all-dancing, all-acting" president. Cameron then went on to infuriate European leaders when he sent a letter to Klaus, urging him to delay ratification of the treaty so that the Brits could hold another referendum on it if the Conservatives take power next spring. While a referendum now looks unlikely (see No. 4), the probable future Conservative government in the U.K. does not look like it will be terribly Euro-friendly.

The real question, as I noted earlier, is how the U.S. government will respond to all of this. As this article in the New York Times points out, the Obama administration has so far taken a distant -- if friendly -- approach to Europe. Whether that's because it's momentarily distracted, or because the Europeans haven't demonstrated enough leadership, is still unclear.

But President Obama will be holding a meeting with EU leaders tomorrow and it will be interesting to see what comes out of it. Stay tuned . . .

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