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    GOP Makes Gains in 'Generic' Poll on 2010 Midterm House Elections

    Posted:
    11/2/09
    Filed Under:House, Polls, Poll Watch
    Forty-six percent of registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the elections were held today while 44 percent side with the Republicans, with 10 percent undecided, according to a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 1-4. That compares to a 50 percent to 44 percent edge the Democrats held in July.
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    It's important to remember that Gallup offers this up as a predictor of the aggregate national vote for the parties, which does not translate into how many seats each will win, given that the vote is spread over 435 districts. Voters may be in a Republican or Democratic mood, but when it comes to an actual name on the ballot, their decision may be different. And, another variable is how many voters actually turn out at the polls.

    Gallup says, based on its statistical model, that the Democrats could lose the overall 2010 congressional vote and keep their House majority. If the Democrats garner 51 percent of the national vote, Gallup's prediction is that they could hold on to almost all their current seats, and with as little as 48 percent of the vote, still retain a majority of 218 members.

    The model developed by Gallup uses historical voting patterns in midterm elections since 1946 and other factors, such as who holds the White House and House at the time of the election.




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    Bruce Drake

    Drake began his career with the New York Daily News, spending most of that time in Washington covering Congress, national politics and the Reagan White House... more

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