GOP Makes Gains in 'Generic' Poll on 2010 Midterm House Elections

2 years ago

0 Comments Say Something »

Text Size

Contributing Editor

Forty-six percent of registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the elections were held today while 44 percent side with the Republicans, with 10 percent undecided, according to a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 1-4. That compares to a 50 percent to 44 percent edge the Democrats held in July.

It's important to remember that Gallup offers this up as a predictor of the aggregate national vote for the parties, which does not translate into how many seats each will win, given that the vote is spread over 435 districts. Voters may be in a Republican or Democratic mood, but when it comes to an actual name on the ballot, their decision may be different. And, another variable is how many voters actually turn out at the polls.

Gallup says, based on its statistical model, that the Democrats could lose the overall 2010 congressional vote and keep their House majority. If the Democrats garner 51 percent of the national vote, Gallup's prediction is that they could hold on to almost all their current seats, and with as little as 48 percent of the vote, still retain a majority of 218 members.

The model developed by Gallup uses historical voting patterns in midterm elections since 1946 and other factors, such as who holds the White House and House at the time of the election.

Filed Under: House, Polls, Poll Watch

Tagged: 2010 midterm elections, 2010MidtermElections

Our New Approach to Comments

In an effort to encourage the same level of civil dialogue among Politics Daily’s readers that we expect of our writers – a “civilogue,” to use the term coined by PD’s Jeffrey Weiss – we are requiring commenters to use their AOL or AIM screen names to submit a comment, and we are reading all comments before publishing them. Personal attacks (on writers, other readers, Nancy Pelosi, George W. Bush, or anyone at all) and comments that are not productive additions to the conversation will not be published, period, to make room for a discussion among those with ideas to kick around. Please read our Help and Feedback section for more info.