Pollsters From Both Parties: Republicans Headed for a Good Election Day

Mellman said the outcome of the three contests won't be predictive of his party's fortunes in 2010, given the depth of the recession and the accomplishments Democrats could rack up in the next year. But Republican Bill McInturff said wins in all three races this week would have "enormous bearing" on his party's fundraising and candidate recruitment -- both precursors to doing well in 2010, when the entire House, one-third of the Senate and 37 governorships will be at stake.

McInturff also said Democrats may accomplish less than they hope. He called President Obama's agenda of health reform, climate-change legislation and immigration reform "chilling" to moderate and conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats. "There's only so many profile-in-courage votes you can cast as a Blue Dog Democrat," McInturff said, and predicted Obama won't push immigration in 2010.

Mellman and McInturff began the breakfast by presenting their joint research on climate change for the Pew Environment Group. The House has passed a comprehensive climate and energy bill and the Senate Environment Committee begins work Tuesday on its version.

The legislation is complex and could have an uphill climb to passage. However, McInturff and Mellman said there is broad consensus in the country that global warming is happening or will happen (76 percent), it is a serious problem (71 percent) and America should reduce the carbon emissions that cause global warming (77 percent). Seven in 10 agreed with proponents of the bills in Congress that their plans would create clean-energy jobs, curb global warming and reduce dependence on foreign oil.

McInturff said two-thirds of Republican primary voters don't believe in global warming and noted there is pressure on Republicans to not be seen as helping Obama get what he wants. But he named six GOP senators who might be open to supporting a compromise energy bill -- Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, John McCain of Arizona, and Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine.