Voter Numbers, Independent Candidate Are Keys to N.J. Governor's Race

But voters are going to the polls today with all signs pointing to a tight race between the two, with a wild card in the shape of the independent candidacy of Chris Daggett, a former regional administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, who had worked in the gubernatorial campaigns of past Republican candidates.

Republicans have not won a statewide race in New Jersey in a dozen years, and while national Democrats have tried to deflect efforts to portray the race as a referendum on their policies, President Obama's multiple visits here may have raised the perception stakes.

The top issues have been property taxes and taxes in general, issues on which polls show voters generally trust Christie more.

The last poll issued on the race, from Fairleigh Dickinson University, had 68 percent saying the country was heading in the right direction and just 34 percent saying that about New Jersey -- not surprising in a state with a 9.7 percent unemployment rate and a looming $8 billion state budget deficit.

The outcome is riding on two factors: will Corzine be able to rouse the state's Democrats and independents who flocked to the polls last year, energized by Obama's presidential campaign, and how much will Daggett's candidacy tip the ballot?

Democrats have the registration advantage: 24 percent to 18 percent for the Republicans and 58 percent unaffiliated with either party. But since some unaffiliated voters actually lean one way or another, the Monmouth University Polling Institute says that 40 percent identify with the Democrats and 26 percent with the Republicans with 33 percent remaining independent.

But so far, Corzine has struggled to ignite anywhere near the same enthusiasm as Obama did last year. The presidential election brought out more than 440,000 new voters to the polls, something an off-year election without the Obama effect is unlikely to do.

And that's not Corzine's only problem, as his campaign launched a "Yes We Can 2.0" final drive capped by the third visit to the state by Obama on Sunday. Corzine also has had trouble firing up the Democratic faithful and getting them off the sidelines.

Public Policy Polling noted in mid-October that Obama carried the state in 2008 by 57 percent to 42 percent, but the voters in that survey who were likely to go to the polls supported Obama by a much-lesser 49 percent to 45 percent last year. PPP's polling also found Corzine underperforming among key Democratic constituencies, getting just 67 percent of the black vote and 53 percent of the Hispanic vote, both less than Democrats usually get. That was what Obama was trying to help turn around in his visits.

For his part, Christie has been criticized by some for losing an early lead with an ineffectual campaign, although Corzine's well-funded run of television ads and New Jersey's tradition of Democrats coming back home as Election Day nears may have also contributed to that. The percentage of voters who see Christie favorably or unfavorably has bounced back-and-forth, sometimes tipping over to the positive side and sometimes to the negative. In nearly every poll, Corzine has been seen unfavorably by double-digit margins.

That leaves the Daggett effect, and pundits and pollsters have differed on which candidate he helps or hurts more. Daggett, who was endorsed by the Newark Star-Ledger, has ranged in most polls from 8 percent to as high as 13 percent, though one survey put him at 20 percent. But the key figure is probably the percentage of Daggett supporters who say they might change their minds, which stands at 38 percent.

To win, Corzine needs to do well in the state's urban centers and the New York City suburbs, particularly in vote-rich Bergen county. Christie must do well in Republican strongholds in the suburbs and exurbs.