Next Year Looking Less Friendly for Democrats
Bruce Drake
Contributing Editor
Posted:
11/4/09
A day after the off-year elections which produced glimmers of hope for the GOP, Gallup has dug into its data and sees a political climate in 2010 that is less hospitable for Democrats than it was in the 2008 presidential contest and the 2006 midterms.
Here are Gallup's key points:
-- "After a strong start, President Obama's approval ratings have slumped, though they remain at or above 50%. Other recent presidents who took office during difficult economic times -- Carter, Reagan, and Clinton -- were below 50% at the time of the midterms, and saw their parties perform poorly in the elections. Obama hopes to avoid a similar fate."
-- "Unless the economy turns around dramatically over the next year, the Democrats are likely to face an electorate that is very unhappy with the course of the nation and the state of the economy. But they may be able to overcome these factors to some degree if Obama can maintain or increase his popularity."
-- "Americans' ratings of Congress hit new lows last year. After rebounding in the early part of 2009, they are back down to 21% -- just seven points above the all-time low, which would usually suggest higher seat turnover. With Democrats in control of both the presidency and Congress, they are clearly vulnerable in this respect."
-- "Democratic supporters continue to outnumber Republican supporters -- clearly a benefit to the Democratic Party. A key will be whether that advantage continues to shrink, or whether Democrats can hold, if not increase, their current edge."
For Gallup's full analysis, go here.
Here are Gallup's key points:
-- "After a strong start, President Obama's approval ratings have slumped, though they remain at or above 50%. Other recent presidents who took office during difficult economic times -- Carter, Reagan, and Clinton -- were below 50% at the time of the midterms, and saw their parties perform poorly in the elections. Obama hopes to avoid a similar fate."
-- "Unless the economy turns around dramatically over the next year, the Democrats are likely to face an electorate that is very unhappy with the course of the nation and the state of the economy. But they may be able to overcome these factors to some degree if Obama can maintain or increase his popularity."
-- "Americans' ratings of Congress hit new lows last year. After rebounding in the early part of 2009, they are back down to 21% -- just seven points above the all-time low, which would usually suggest higher seat turnover. With Democrats in control of both the presidency and Congress, they are clearly vulnerable in this respect."
-- "Democratic supporters continue to outnumber Republican supporters -- clearly a benefit to the Democratic Party. A key will be whether that advantage continues to shrink, or whether Democrats can hold, if not increase, their current edge."
For Gallup's full analysis, go here.