Gay Marriage Split: Why Maine Is Mainstream

The outcome of a referendum that has thwarted gay marriage in Maine was understandably celebrated by conservative Christian lobbies that had poured money and resources into the state to convince voters to vote "yes" on Question 1, a ballot initiative launched in September to undo a new law legalizing same-sex marriage.

"If they [gay rights advocates] can't win there, it really does tell you the majority of Americans are not on board with this gay marriage thing," Maggie Gallagher, president of the National Organization for Marriage (NOM), which is spearheading the fight against same-sex marriage nationally, told The New York Times.

Equally understandable was the gnashing of teeth that greeted the result on the other side of the religious divide.

"I wish I could say the Religious Right is dead, but this election shows that reports of its demise are inaccurate," the Rev. Barry W. Lynn, head of Americans United for Separation of Church and State, said in a morning-after statement. "The pundits who announced the Religious Right's demise in 2008 were simply wrong."

On the ground in Maine, gay marriage advocates who thought they had the winds at their backs on this one were still shocked as the final results were tallied on Wednesday, showing an unexpected defeat -- 53 percent to 47 percent in favor of Question 1 (thereby repealing the marriage law). That was much the same margin by which the Proposition 8 gay marriage ban passed in California exactly a year ago, leading to an assumption that the same conservative religious forces that helped Prop 8 also boosted Question 1 in Maine.

"I think it had a huge effect," said a religious activist who supports gay marriage and opposed the ballot proposition. The activist preferred to remain anonymous because he is a practicing Catholic and has concerns about repercussions.

And truth be told, Christian groups that oppose gay marriage were certainly active in Maine. In addition to the National Organization for Marriage and the Family Research Council, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Portland, which covers the entire state, pumped resources and staff into promoting a "yes" vote. Bishop Richard Malone called for a special collection at Masses on behalf of Stand for Marriage Maine, the principal coalition fighting to repeal the gay marriage law. The diocese eventually channeled $550,000 to the campaign -- even as Malone announced the closing of five parishes which he said the diocese could no longer afford to operate. Videos denouncing gay marriage were also shown at Mass throughout the diocese.

But Maine is also one of least religious states in one of the least religious regions of the country. A Gallup survey showed that while 65 percent of all Americans agreed when asked if "religion is an important part of your daily life," that figure is just 48 percent in Maine; only New Hampshire (46 percent) and Vermont (42 percent) scored lower on the religiosity scale. Similarly, the American Religious Identification Survey shows that the number of self-professed Christians in Maine declined from 54 percent to 47 percent from 1990 to 2008, and the number of Catholics -- the most prominent and compact religious community in the state -- went from 31 percent to 22 percent over the same period. Moreover, the anti-gay marriage forces spent only about half of what the "No on 1" forces spent to defend gay marriage.

"I really doubt whether religion played a part," said Mark Silk, head of the Leonard E. Greenberg Center for the Study of Religion in Public Life at Trinity College and co-author of "One Nation, Divisible: How Regional Religious Differences Shape American Politics." As Silk noted, the same voters who rejected gay marriage also voted to expand the state's medical marijuana law by 59 percent to 41 percent.

The real divide in Maine, analysts said -- and the one that gay marriage opponents successfully exploited -- is not so much moral or religious as it is a split over class and culture. The southern part of the state around Portland, as well as the coastline where retirees and the well-to-do have homes, both went heavily against Question 1 and for gay marriage. But the rest of the state, which is more libertarian than liberal, did not. "Mainers are independent-minded, but they are relatively conservative," Silk said. "It's rural versus urban."

Anne Underwood, who headed Catholics for Marriage Equality, which broadcast an overtly religious message to try to convince religious voters that gay marriage was a matter of Christian social justice, added that anxiety over the economy trumped concerns over what was cast as a special privilege for a small group of people.

"Tourism is down, fishing is a disaster, and people who used to work in the mills in Maine don't have anything anymore," Underwood said. "When you are struggling to meet the basics, it is much more difficult to be persuaded to extend yourself into understanding justice for people who don't seem to be affected by the same economic ills that you are."

Words matter as well. In Washington state, which is part of the largely secular Northwest and has some of the same cultural and economic dynamics as Maine, voters passed by a small margin a referendum allowing domestic partnership rights for homosexuals. Polls consistently show that the public is much more inclined to back civil unions or domestic partnerships or any other marriage-like institution when it is not called "marriage."

Those polls also show that the demographics are on the side of gay marriage advocates, as younger Americans, across the religious divides, are much more open to gay marriage than even their more liberal parents and grandparents.

In addition, gay rights advocates could point to some notable successes from Election Day.

In Detroit, Charles Pugh was elected as the first openly gay City Council president, and in Chapel Hill, N.C., a gay rights activist, Mark Kleinschmidt, won 49 percent of the vote in a four-person race, making him the city's first openly gay mayor.

And in Houston, Annise Parker, a lesbian, will be in a runoff election for mayor next month. On Tuesday, Parker won 31 percent of the vote to 25 percent for her next closest rival. If she prevails, it would make Houston -- that's in Texas -- the largest U.S. city with an openly gay mayor. Washington, D.C., also seems poised to enact gay marriage despite the vocal opposition of many African-American pastors.

For many gay rights advocates, however, such piecemeal progress seems far too little and far too slow, and it hardly seems to make a difference whether voters are acting out of moral conviction or cultural resentments when it comes to gay marriage -- or whether the country is closely divided. The results appear to be the same, having gone against gay marriage in popular votes in 31 states now. Hence the post-election rumblings about trying to act through the courts rather than state legislatures or ballot initiatives.

Yet while members of the Religious Right have reason to cheer the latest vote, they should also realize that demographics will eventually trump doctrine unless they get more true believers in their camp, and that the fight over gay marriage will have many fronts, and many battles before the war is decided.

For much of the early history of the Republic, Maine held its statewide vote in September, and so was seen as a bellwether for the national elections that followed in November. Hence the old saw, "As Maine goes, so goes the nation."

That prediction may be true again, at least for today, though perhaps not for the reasons Christian conservatives would like -- nor for as long as they might wish.