Handicapping the Race for the 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination
Bruce Drake
Most other polls looking ahead to 2012 have had Huckabee in the lead, although this one, by asking whether Republicans would "seriously consider" a candidate, was not worded in the straight-up who-would-you-choose language. But the three front-runners in this poll were the same as in a July Gallup survey that asked Republicans whom they were most likely to support, although in that poll the pecking order was Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Huckabee in third.
In the more recent USA Today/Gallup survey, Romney and Palin are tied for second with 65 percent of respondents saying they would seriously consider them, and 60 percent would consider Newt Gingrich. After that, the other potential GOP candidates trail off, with 48 percent saying they would not seriously consider Tim Pawlenty, compared to 32 percent who would; and 52 percent saying they would not seriously consider Haley Barbour, compared to 26 percent who would.
When the question is asked of all Americans, not just Republicans, Huckabee narrowly edges Romney on the "seriously consider" scale by 40 percent to 39 percent. Thirty-three percent would seriously consider Palin; 29 percent would consider Gingrich; 18 percent would consider Pawlenty; and 15 percent would consider Barbour. But 51 percent would not seriously consider Huckabee or Romney, and all the others are above 60 percent by that measure.
When it comes to qualifications, Americans tagged Palin as not qualified by 62 percent to 31 percent. Huckabee was considered qualified by 50 percent to 36 percent and Romney by 49 percent to 39 percent. Gingrich was regarded as unqualified by 46 percent to 44 percent (the margin of error is 4 points); Pawlenty as unqualified by 51 percent to 25 percent; and Barbour as unqualified by 57 percent to 18 percent.