Damn! A college student at GW majoring in poly si and public policy and writing for "the media" - NOT gloating over a Democrat victory or forecasting the end of the Republican Party??? Wow. I'm stunned.

Andrew,

I can't believe I just read an article on Politics Daily that was well written, insightful, not filled or directed by liberal leaning spin and right on target as well! Congratulations sir, on breaking out of the mold and getting to the truth. Good luck to you in all your future endeavors. You have a good head on your shoulders and I would love to see you in the public arena some day.

Well written. Fire this guy immediately !

Hey, Goppy! Modern Republican.

Beat you to it. Oh, and . . .

Coulter thinks the CONS are more popular than Republicans??? Perhaps the GOP should align with the independents and see how many elections the CONS win without them.
"Hoffman didn't even live in the district"?? Then why didn't Palin run for office. What a bunch of BS spin.
Tell the truth...the GOP won't win with the CONS pushing the agenda and all us RINO'S know it.

Over the past few weeks millions of words have been written about NY-23, much of it misinformation, wrong, or just plain silly. Very few writers have actually thought to look at the district and the recent election on the district's own terms or through the eyes of the residents. This has all been frustrating to those of us who actually live in the region. What actually went on may not fit into other folks world views, or their political agendas. Still, it is important to begin with things as they are.

Dede Scozzafava did not just appear on the scene or was some kind of unknown quantity. She has won several terms by large margins in the NYS Assembly where she has a minor leadership position. We know her, we know
her views. We may not always agree with her, but she IS one of us.

The Republican party in NYS is a moderate party and despite her libertarian social views, she is in the mainstream of the Republican Party in the state and region. Calling moderates in a moderate party RINOs will not win many friends. This is not Texas or Orange County. Northern New York is not particularly conservative or ideological and we are very good at minding our own business. (Outsiders, Club of Growth,and talking heads please take note.)

The short time frame of the special election dictated the selection process. Candidates were interviewed by the Republican chairs and Dede Scozzafava was chosen. Doug Hoffman for his part knew this going in. He tacitly accepted the validity of this process by participating. He did not protest or drop out. At the conclusion, he at first told Dede that he would support her, then went back on his word, bolted the Republican party and ran as conservative. If Mr. Hoffman had played by the rules there would have been a two person race. After this betrayal, it is understandable that Dede could not support Mr. Hoffman at the end.

In a two person race Dede would have won handily against MR.Owen. Her base in Jefferson, St. Lawrence and Lewis Counties. In the past 14 congressional races over 26 years, Democratic candidates have polled over 30% only 3 times. Mr. Hoffman badly underperformed. The other thing that Dede had was union support which has been part of the REPUBLICAN winning coalition for the past two decades. There are 80,000 union households and Mr. Hoffman had very little support in this group.

Consequently, the turning point of this election was not the Scozzafava endorsement, but her dropping of the race. Up until that time union support was evenly divided between Dede and Owens. With her releasing supporters, the unions and their gotv operations swung to Owen in the last four days.

Mr. Hoffman's situation is interesting. Much has been made of his quick rise. Until the Club of Growth started sending him money he was dead in the water. He was not really catching on with voters. At that point he became a product, backed up with outside money and national figures serving as pitchmen. In the end, local voters may have had second thoughts about how substantive a candidate he really was.

Much has also been made of the narrative of grassroots vs establishment types in this election. This is just not true . The selection process fit the special election time frame, and Dede was a known candidate not a stealth candidate of some kind. The real story became local vs. outsider.
District residents dug in their heels against outside money and outside national party types trying to tell us what to do and think. We were very capable of figuring this out for ourselves. In the end there was a backlash against all the unwanted attention and interference in our affarrs. There was also a backlash against the trashing of Dede Scozzafava. The final straw was Rush's crude RINO joke--voters recoiled.
Owens played the situation like a fiddle. Mr.Hoffman fumbled by not distancing himself from the comments.

The rest is history.

The unintended consequences continue to unfold. There is resentment that a Republican seat was lost when Dede was a sure thing. Also the outside interference. I have already heard of several party changes. We will have a lower Republican enrollement in NY-23 a year from now.

The GOP should have stuck to their woman instead of dividing the party line. The GOP cannot win only conservatives alone. It needs the help of moderates and independent. That's what got Ronald Reagan elected in 1980 and 1984 in places like New York, a Democratic stronghold. The GOP needs to widen their base to pick more seats or possibly regain the majority of the Congress between 2010 and 2012.

And this health care bill is the best way to get the moderates and independents on their side now that they've become shaky with it comes to Obama.

I think the voters in NY-23 had the "last word" when they voted!

The GOP consistantly holds a dim view of women. They recently voted agains't women that had been raped seeking court justice.How can the GOPPERS ever hope to represent the whole american people?