A Win for Democrats in Charlotte Offers Lessons (Maybe)
Mary C. Curtis
National Correspondent
Posted:
11/10/09
The day after his election as the mayor of Charlotte, Anthony Foxx received a congratulatory phone call from Barack Obama. The 38-year-old Foxx -- the youngest mayor-elect in the history of North Carolina's largest city, the second black man chosen for the job -- was excited by the recognition. But the president had good reason to take notice. While a mayoral race may not be the best barometer when tracking national political trends, the election of the city's first Democratic mayor in 22 years was a bright spot of good news on a day when Democrats needed some, particularly when you add in a City Council that increased the Democratic majority from 7-4 to 8-3. To be sure, Democrats would rather have taken the governor's race just one state over in Virginia, but a win is a win.Looked at from the distance of a week, Charlotte's Election Day results still offer good news for Democrats. But it's not so easy to draw long-term conclusions about the party and the changing dynamics of Southern voting from this particular mayor's race. Every lesson comes with a "yes, but," proving only that what works in politics changes by the election or by the day. Just ask the dejected Democrats who predicted the end of the modern Republican Party a year ago.
That call from the president is an example. After the pleasantries, Foxx got down to business – local business -- asking for the president's help. "Making sure we do everything we can to keep our financial services assets in this area is critical," Foxx told me. "I don't know what the president can do specifically," he said. "I figure he's the president, he can do something."
Foxx was careful to keep his eye on Charlotte's problems throughout his campaign, to resist nationalizing the mayor's race in any way. Despite the national interest in the race and Democratic National Committee interest in rising star Foxx, he talked about the economy and small business, public safety and the schools. So the message is keep it local.
Yes, but . . . at the same time, Foxx had to build on the surge in Democratic voter registration and get-out-the-vote excitement that Obama's campaign perfected in his big Charlotte-Mecklenburg win last year. "That created some challenges," Foxx told me. "A lot of those voters who came out in 2008 were voters who were really motivated by the visibility of the White House and the power of a very effective message that was delivered very effectively by now President Obama." The Foxx campaign learned some of the methods that were used to push turnout, including technology that targeted voters, lots of phone banking and knocking on doors. Campaign manager Bruce Clark was a deputy field director for the Obama campaign in the Charlotte area. National tactics pushed the local message through.
Could the election mean that's it's a numbers game, and big cities are trending reliably Democratic? (In Charlotte, those numbers are: Democrats, 49 percent; Republicans, 26 percent; unaffiliated, 25 percent.) Not exactly. Voter affiliation had not stopped Republican Pat McCrory, elected for seven two-year terms in a Charlotte that was slightly more Democratic. Polls showed a dead-even race up to Election Day, with Republican candidate John Lassiter -- a businessman with McCrory's backing -- ahead in some polls. He seemed a safe bet in a city that's always been about business.
Yes, but . . . business hasn't been so good lately. Wachovia has already been bought by San Francisco-based Wells Fargo. Bank of America, one of the city's economic and philanthropic signatures, is casting a wide net for a chief executive to replace the departing Ken Lewis, leading to local fears that the headquarters may move.
While the national mood is growing wary of change, the Charlotte electorate -- after 22 years of Republican mayors -- seemed more willing to embrace it. Since both candidates were at-large City Council members with similar records on many issues, it's the cautious change Charlotte can believe in. McCrory could have offered a warning. His longtime personal popularity did not help him win his own city in a close gubernatorial race against Beverly Perdue in 2008.
Maybe the lesson is "demographics matter," something national Democrats are counting on in a changing country. In Charlotte, whites are now 57 percent of voters (in 1995, it was 73 percent); black voters are 35 percent. But a vote along racial lines would not have elected Foxx. He actually carried 30 precincts that McCrory won in 2007. (And the theory discounts Harvey Gantt's 1983 mayoral victory.)
Foxx crafted a win, in part, by reflecting a practical approach. "A lot of the concerns that people might ordinarily have with a sort of a cookie-cutter partisan kind of a candidate, those kinds of concerns were hard to have with me," Foxx said. "I've supported every police hire that's been requested throughout the time I've been on council." He also refused a City Council pay increase. "I presented someone who knows the value of a dollar and also knows the importance of public safety. Those are two issues that oftentimes can disqualify someone running for office in some voters' minds." Some Democratic and African-American candidates, he could have said but didn't. So candidates who aren't what you expect do well, which worked for Republican Bob McDonnell in Virginia.
In Charlotte and the South, another factor is a voting base that is expanding beyond black and white to reflect the country's growing Hispanic and Asian population. The exhibit "Changing Places: From Black and White to Technicolor" at the Levine Museum of the New South examines these cultural and political changes. So don't depend on demographics; they change.
As in any political contest, did it just come down to voters relating more to one candidate? Foxx's personal narrative of overcoming obstacles seemed to strike a chord. Raised by his mother and grandparents, he earned degrees at Davidson -- where he was the first black student body president -- and New York University law school. Biography helped Barack Obama, but only for a while.
Was the Charlotte election a default decision because some voters felt the candidates didn't clarify their differences, despite 40 debates and forums? Lassiter didn't distinguish his views enough to get conservative Democrats and Independents excited, according to McCrory. But if Lassiter had been a more hard-edged Republican, would that style have alienated voters? Probably, since Democrats and Republicans praised a respectful tone that only turned contentious toward the end of the campaign. Is it best to go tough or soft? It depends.
So, it's about demographics or issues or personality or focus. And national issues don't matter unless they do. Or maybe it was simply one side getting its voters to the polls. The results in Charlotte were so close -- 51 percent to 49 percent, a margin of just over 3,200 votes -- that everything could change in two years, when there will be a whole new set of lessons for Democrats and Republicans to learn.
Meanwhile, in a December runoff down the road in Atlanta, Mary Norwood could become the city's first white mayor since 1974 if she bests opponent Kasim Reed. Surely, that means something -- or not.