Burr Leads Weak Field of Democrats in North Carolina

Democrats had hoped Attorney General Roy Cooper would run against Burr but he announced in May that he had decided not to do so. A Civitas poll in March had him 3 points ahead of Burr.

While a plurality of North Carolinians see Burr positively, the numbers are not impressive for an incumbent: 40 percent approve of the job he's doing, 31 percent disapprove, and 29 percent are undecided.

Matched against a generic Democratic opponent, 44 percent say they would vote for Burr compared to 40 percent who would back a Democrat with 16 percent undecided.

But Burr leads by margins of 10 to 13 points when matched specifically against Democrats that included former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, Rep. Bob Etheridge, Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy, lawyer Kenneth Lewis, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker.

PPP's take on the race: "If 2010 ends up being a big year for Republicans nationally it's unlikely any of the possible Democratic candidates are going to be strong enough to defeat him. If the economy really gets turned around and it winds up being a good year for Democrats, Burr is probably not strong enough to get reelected. And if it's just sort of an average year with neither party having a strong advantage this is likely to be one of the most closely contested races in the country. Yes, it's taken Democrats a long time to get a candidate, but Burr has the weakest numbers of any Republican in the country running for reelection in 2010 so even if it's taking a while the party will definitely make a strong effort in North Carolina."