Coakley polled 44 percent, followed by Boston Celtics' co-owner Steve Pagliuca with 17 percent. Rep. Michael Capuano polled 16 percent, and 3 percent chose Alan Khazei, founder of City Year, which he describes as a "domestic Peace Corps."

The biggest mover in the poll has been Pagliuca, who came from nowhere to second place, no doubt thanks to his $4.5 million advertising campaign. However, Suffolk's David Paleologos said, "He still has not secured the most aware Democratic voters who are choosing Coakley and Capuano before him."

The poll found that 93 percent of Democratic voters couldn't name the day of the primary, and 73 percent couldn't even specify the month, presaging a low turnout contest. "If people think the front runner is going to win, they're less likely to show up," Paleologos said.

On the Republican side, state Sen. Scott Brown leads lawyer, businessman and three-time losing political candidate Jack Robinson by 45 percent to 7 percent with 47 percent undecided.