Can Sue Lowden Knock Out Fightin' Harry Reid in Nevada?

For either Lowden or Tarkanian, ousting Reid would be a big deal -- only the second time in 58 years a Senate majority leader has lost his home state election. (But, maybe, getting less rare: The last time it occurred was in 2004 when Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle was defeated by John Thune in South Dakota.) Since being elected lieutenant governor in 1970, Reid has been an indelible part of the state's political landscape. But Lowden, who admits she voted for Reid early in his career, argues he has become too liberal over the years.

Reid has sought to counter his tumbling popularity by playing the majority leader card -- a bold, but risky, move that could help, but which could also backfire. Powerful incumbents get in trouble back home when they develop the reputation for having gone native in Washington. On the other hand, in a small state such as Nevada, it is a point of civic pride to have a powerful representation in the nation's capital -- and of practical value to voters as well.

In launching a new TV ad, Reid has been touting himself as "the most powerful senator Nevada has ever had." This is probably true. It is also true that at the Nevada card tables a poker player who pushed his hand this aggressively -- in this case, an incumbent going on the air to a run biography advertisement a full year before Election Day -- would be said to be "showing weakness."

Reid is a fighter (literally, he is a former boxer), so it's also no surprise he's decided to come out of his corner swinging. The first rule in politics is that if you're behind, you should attack your opponent. It is a lesson Reid knows well, and one that fits him temperamentally. In the last week, Reid's campaign has sent out two press releases attacking Lowden, the only Republican opponent Reid has gone after. One of those negative lines of attack appears to have gained traction.

The backstory goes like this: In 1981, when Reid was chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission, his wife, Landra, discovered a cable under the hood of the family's station wagon that was connected -- incorrectly, thankfully -- to the gas tank. The device was a bomb that was rigged to explode when the car was started. The evidence suggested this was a very serious attempt on his life, perpetrated by mob-connected gangsters. The episode came to light again because Lowden, who was a well known TV anchor and reporter in 1981, was unable to recall the incident during a recent conservative talk radio interview.

One of the Reid campaign's press releases on the subject was accompanied by a Web ad, featuring audio of the controversial Sue Lowden interview. The insinuation is that Lowden is pretending not to remember the famous incident and that she may be making light of it. While criticism of Lowden's memory seems in order, what does not seem in order is the suggestion raised by Reid and the media that she "snickered" about the attempt on Reid's life. That charge makes her sound not just forgetful but downright mean.

Las Vegas Sun reporter Jon Ralston challenged that contention in his recent e-mail newsletter, writing that Lowden "hardly 'snickered' or 'laughed about an assassination attempt,' but merely chuckled when host Heidi Harris questioned the veracity of the incident." Ralston's point was that Lowden wasn't laughing about the attempt on Reid's life, but was actually laughing at the interviewer for doubting the attempt occurred.

Reached by phone on Thursday morning, Lowden told me: "For the Reid camp to be more concerned about my not remembering something from 30 years ago than about the almost 14 percent unemployment rate in the state indicates how desperate the Reid camp is to change the subject."

Lowden, who has been a schoolteacher, a Nevada state senator and chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party, told me that her time as a news reporter and anchorwoman is her strongest asset: "When I did the news, there was no cable -- and we had an award-winning news broadcast," she said. Before the advent of cable news, anchors were "part of the fiber of the community."

It is unlikely Reid perceives this controversy to be a potentially fatal attack on Lowden's campaign but rather a way to begin laying the groundwork for a negative narrative about her. Either way, this suggests that Reid and his aides have concluded that Lowden would be the tougher Republican adversary for him to face in November. He may even be hoping to end her campaign before it starts -- before the Republican primary.

For now, however, Lowden's gaffe has taken her off-message. She was hardly helped when unpopular Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons ham-fistedly made light of the 1981 car bomb incident last month, when he appeared on Heidi Harris' program. "I know very little about the investigation," Gibbons said, laughing. "But my understanding is it was a telephone book and a shoe box."

With friends like that, the Republicans who want to unseat Reid need no enemies. Lowden clearly wants the election to be about Nevada having the highest foreclosure rate in the nation and one of the highest unemployment rates. Harry Reid wants the election to be about his pedigree as a stand-up guy and a longstanding fixture in Nevada politics. These dueling narratives are not mutually exclusive, but only one will carry the day in 2010.