Robin Carnahan, Missouri's Democratic secretary of state, is in a dead heat with seven-term Republican Rep. Roy Blunt in the race to succeed GOP incumbent Sen. Kit Bond, who decided not to seek re-election, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Nov. 13-15.

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Carnahan leads Blunt, 43 percent to 42 percent, with 15 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.6 points. Both get similar levels of support from members of their own parties but Blunt leads among independents, 44 percent to 32 percent.

Carnahan is seen more favorably by voters than is Blunt. Forty percent express a positive view of her, while 36 percent see her unfavorably and 24 percent are undecided. Thirty-eight percent see Blunt unfavorably and 30 percent favorably, with 32 percent undecided. Sixty-five percent of those polled say that Blunt had become "part of the problem" regarding huge deficits and too much government spending during his 13 years in Washington. Thirty-five percent considered him part of the solution.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008, she would likely have won, given her superior popularity," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that's made this race highly competitive."

Blunt is being challenged by state Sen. Chuck Purgason for the GOP nomination, but the poll doesn't give Purgason much of a chance: Blunt leads, 53 percent to 16 percent with 31 percent undecided. If Purgason got the chance to face off against Carnahan, she leads him by 42 percent to 35 percent with 23 percent undecided.


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