Crist vs. Rubio Contest in Florida Gets a Little Tighter

Gov. Charlie Crist has become one of the next big targets of conservative activists lining up against candidates they see as too moderate, and in Florida, they may be making progress with their support of former state House Speaker Mark Rubio who is mounting a challenge to Crist from the right for the GOP Senate nomination.

A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted Nov. 16-18 finds Crist ahead of Rubio in a GOP primary match-up by 47 percent to 37 percent with 16 percent undecided.

In August, a Quinnipiac poll had Crist leading Rubio 55 percent to 26 percent, a margin that dropped to 50 percent to 35 percent when it polled voters again in mid-October. Similarly, a Rasmussen Reports poll had Crist ahead 53 percent to 21 percent in August, a margin that dropped to 49 percent to 35 percent, also in mid-October.

Crist is seen favorably by all voters by 59 percent to 32 percent with 9 percent undecided. Among Republicans, his favorability ratio is 67 percent to 26 percent. It is hard to compare these figures to Rubio's because 57 percent of voters, including 50 percent of Republicans, don't know enough about him to express an opinion.

For Republicans, this inevitably brings their choice down to whether they put more value on their candidate winning or choosing someone who they think better represents the party's philosophy. Crist leads four-term. Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek in a general election match-up by 50 percent to 33 percent with 17 percent undecided, while Meek leads Rubio 38 percent to 30 percent with 32 percent undecided.

Like Rubio, Meek has a name recognition problem with 68 percent of Floridians not knowing enough about him to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion.

The poll also tested a scenario of Crist ending up running as an independent against Meek and Rubio, and had him leading 32 percent to Meek's 31 percent and Rubio's 27 percent, with 10 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

If Crist were to pull an Arlen Specter and run as a Democrat, he's leading Rubio 45 percent to 34 percent with 21 percent undecided.

In the contest for governor, voters clearly are not very focused on this right now. Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum leads Democrat Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer, 35 percent to 33 percent with 32 percent undecided.

If state Sen. Paula Dockery were the GOP candidate, she'd find Sink leading her by 35 percent to 13 percent with 52 percent undecided.