So here's a brain-twister for the day: New polls show that a majority of Americans do not want federal funds to subsidize abortion coverage. But hardly anyone cites taxpayer funding of abortion as a reason they oppose the health care reform packages under consideration in Congress. And yet abortion funding has become the make-or-break issue for health care reform.

A CNN poll released Wednesday showed that 61 percent of Americans oppose using public funds to cover abortion when a woman cannot afford it, while 37 percent are in favor of such a use of taxpayer dollars. In addition, just over half (51 percent) believe that a woman should pay for any abortion out of pocket and not use even private insurance.

Then on Thursday, the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life released a survey showing that 55 percent of Americans believe abortion "should not be a benefit in health reform" while 28 percent say it should be included.

But when the Pew survey asked respondents to name their main reasons for opposing health care reform, just 3 percent cited abortion funding. (Interestingly, opposition to benefits for illegal immigrants and the public option generated the same relatively low level of interest.)

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Far and away the two most popular reasons for opposition, with 27 percent each, were that respondents believed health care reform would increase the deficit or was "too expensive," or that they "don't want government involved in health care."

Even when only those who oppose health care reform were given a list of five reasons for their opposition, abortion funding was cited by just 8 percent of respondents. "Too much governmental involvement" came in first with 38 percent, and "too expensive for the country" was cited by 27 percent of opponents.

Moreover, when asked to choose a major reason for their opposition from a list of five reasons, just 10 percent of evangelical Christians and 11 percent of white Roman Catholics chose abortion funding as the main concern. The two groups show an intriguing difference however, in that evangelicals are more likely to say government involvement is the main problem (43 percent) as opposed to 32 percent of white Catholics who cite the government's role as the source of their opposition. One in five evangelicals said the expense was the reason for their opposition, while more than a third (36 percent) of white Catholics cited that factor.

As for what Pew researcher Alan Cooperman called "the classic Catholic position" of strongly supporting universal health care but viewing abortion funding as a deal breaker, "we just don't find much of that."

But you do find it in the House of Representatives, at least among the critical group of pro-life Democrats who have the ability to swing -- or sink -- a health care deal. Their influence is due to an unusual confluence of factors: the near-even split in the country and the Congress on so many issues, as well as the fact that Democrats are in the majority, in part, because they promoted candidates in districts that are conservative on social issues.

Cooperman said Pew asked very specific questions on abortion and health care funding because of the publicity over the House health care bill, which was narrowly passed on November 7 after a successful amendment barring any funding for abortion sponsored by Democratic Rep. Bart Stupak of Michigan. The Pew survey was conducted about a week later, from Nov. 12-15.

"We do not know if people felt satisfied that this issue [abortion funding] was effectively taken off the table" by the House bill, Cooperman said. "We cannot get inside of people's heads that way."

But it could be back in people's minds as the Senate bill unveiled Wednesday provides the same kind of "fiscal firewall" for abortion funding that caused a ruckus on the House side. (See a New York Times side-by-side comparison of the abortion language in the competing bills.)

Either way, the overall numbers on health care reform are what count in the end, and on that score there was some good news for the reform camp. According to the Pew poll, Americans now favor the health care reform proposals in Congress by a 42-39 percent margin -- a 13-point swing since October and the first time proponents have outnumbered opponents.


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