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    POLL WATCH

    bruce-drake

    Bruce Drake

    Contributing Editor

    Obama Slips in Latest Round-Up of Poll Ratings by State

    Posted:
    11/30/09
    Filed Under:Barack Obama, Polls, Poll Watch, Independents
    40 Comments  + 
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    A batch of new state polls on President Obama's approval ratings don't hold particularly good news for him, with his approval margins down in several places that had been his strongholds, his negative ratings up in two swing states and, in most of the surveys, his standing with independents is in negative territory.
    The nine polls were released today by SurveyUSA and included: Alabama, California, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, New York, Oregon, Virginia and Washington state.
    It's tricky to draw sweeping conclusions from these nine polls as a group because they don't constitute a bellwether sample, but some things stand out.
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    Obama remains in positive territory in the Democratic strongholds of New York and California, but his approval margins are lower than they were in SurveyUSA's polls in September. He has high disapproval numbers in Missouri, where he nearly beat John McCain in 2008, and Virginia where he did beat McCain. Kentucky is not exactly Obama territory and he gets only a 53 percent approval vote from fellow Democrats there. Independents in seven of the nine states disapprove of the job he is doing, and in two other states they are split on the question.
    Alabama

    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22
    2008 election: McCain 60 percent, Obama 38 percent

    SurveyUSA says 59 percent of Alabamans disapprove of Obama's job performance, 38 percent approve and 3 percent are undecided, about the same ratio as in its September poll. Eighty-six percent of Republicans disapprove, 73 percent of Democrats approve and 75 percent of independents disapprove. Republicans make up 38 percent of the sample, Democrats comprise 37 percent and independents make up 19 percent.

    Arizona

    Arizona State University/KAET, Nov. 19-22; Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 18

    2008 election: McCain 53 percent, Obama 45 percent

    Arizona voters split at 48 percent each on whether they approve or disapprove of the job Obama is doing, with 4 percent expressing no opinion. They believe by 45 percent to 40 percent that he should send more troops to Afghanistan. Fifteen percent expressed no opinion.
    Rasmussen says 60 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing while 40 percent approve.
    Arkansas
    Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 28; Public Policy Polling, Aug. 21-24

    2008 election: McCain 59 percent, Obama 39 percent


    Rasmussen says 62 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance while 37 percent give him positive marks. Of those, 52 percent "strongly" disapprove. Sixty-seven percent oppose the health care proposals of Obama and the Democrats while 30 percent support them. Again, 52 percent describe themselves as "strongly" opposed.

    PPP says 56 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance compared to 40 percent who approve. And get this: Voters said by 55 percent to 45 percent that conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh had a better vision for America than Obama. Independents disapprove of Obama's performance by 66 percent to 30 percent. Obama's health plan is opposed by 60 percent to 29 percent. Democratic support for the health care plan is tepid compared to elsewhere at 54 percent to 26 percent with 20 percent undecided. Republicans oppose it 89 percent to 8 percent, and independents oppose it by 73 percent to 20 percent.

    California
    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22; Los Angeles Times/USC, Oct. 27 - Nov. 3; Field Poll, Sept. 18 - Oct. 5
    2008 election: Obama 61 percent, McCain 37 percent
    SurveyUSA says 53 percent of Californians approve of Obama's performance while 38 percent disapprove and 8 percent are undecided. Independents, who make up 20 percent of the sample, disapprove by a 50 percent to 44 percent margin. The margin of error is 4.1 points. In September, SurveyUSA had Obama's approval ratio at 62 percent to 33 percent.
    The LA Times poll says Californians approve of the job Obama is doing by 60 percent to 34 percent with 6 percent undecided. Sixty-five percent view him favorably while 33 percent see him unfavorably. By 59 percent to 35 percent, voters want a senator elected in 2010 who will support Obama.
    Field says 60 percent of voters approve of the job Obama is doing compared to 31 percent who disapprove, a falloff from March when the ratio was 65 percent to 21 percent. Californians support Obama's health care reform plan by 52 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent expressing no opinion. They approve of his handling of Afghanistan by 48 percent to 31 percent with 21 percent having no opinion. But a majority opposes a troop increase in Afghanistan, when the number of those who want the U.S. presence decreased (37 percent) and those who say it should be kept the same (16 percent) are combined. Thirty-three percent favor an increase. Voters approve of the job Obama is doing on the economy by 60 percent to 35 percent with 5 percent having no opinion. On foreign policy, they approve of his performance by 58 percent to 29 percent with 13 percent expressing no opinion.
    Colorado
    Rasmussen Reports Sept. 15, Public Policy Polling Aug. 14-16

    2008 election: Obama 54 percent, McCain 45 percent
    Fifty-one percent disapprove of Obama's job performance compared to 48 percent who give him positive marks, according to Rasmussen.
    PPP says Obama's approval numbers are where they were in April: 49 percent give him positive marks and 47 percent express disapproval. Obama won the state in 2008 with 54 percent of the vote. Fifty-one percent oppose his health plan, 38 percent back it and 11 percent are undecided. Democrats approve of Obama as strongly as Republicans disapprove of him, while independents split with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.
    Connecticut
    2008 election: Obama 60 percent, McCain 38 percent

    Quinnipiac says 58 percent of voters approve of Obama's job performance compared to 35 percent who disapprove with 7 percent undecided. They approve of his handling of the economy by 52 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent undecided. But his coattails are not long enough to help an incumbent senator in political trouble, Chris Dodd. Seventy-five percent say Obama's support of Dodd would make no difference to them. They trust Obama more than congressional Republicans on health care by 56 percent to 37 percent with 8 percent undecided.

    Delaware

    Daily Kos/Research 2000, Oct. 12-14; Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 30

    2008 election: Obama 62 percent, McCain 37 percent

    Research 2000 says Obama is viewed favorably by 64 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent with 4 percent expressing no opinion. Independents view him favorably by 69 percent to 25 percent with 6 percent having no opinion.
    Rasmussen says 54 percent approve of Obama's job performance compared to 45 percent who do not. Voters are split on Obama's health care reform plan, with 49 percent opposing it to 48 percent who support it.
    Florida
    2008 election: Obama 51 percent, McCain 48 percent
    The St. Petersburg Times poll says 51 percent rate Obama's performance as fair or poor while 46 percent say he is doing a good or excellent job.
    Rasmussen says Floridians disapprove of Obama's performance by 58 percent to 42 percent.
    But Quinnipiac says 48 percent approve of Obama's job performance while 46 percent do not with 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

    Iowa
    Des Moines Register, Nov. 8-11; Daily Kos/Research 2000, Oct. 12-14

    2008 election: Obama 54 percent, McCain 44 percent
    The Register says 49 percent approve of Obama's performance while 44 percent do not, with 7 percent undecided. That's a falloff from 53 percent in September and 19 points lower than January. Fifty-five percent of Iowans disapprove of how Obama is handling health care, up from not quite half in September. Nearly two-thirds of likely voters in Iowa disapprove of Obama's budget policies when it comes to the burgeoning size of the deficit.

    Research 2000 says Obama is viewed favorably by 55 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent with 9 percent expressing no opinion. Independents view him favorably by 56 percent to 32 percent with 12 percent voicing no opinion.

    Kansas

    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22

    2008 election: McCain 56 percent, Obama 41 percent

    SurveyUSA finds 58 percent of Kansans disapprove of Obama's performance compared to 38 percent who approve and 4 percent who are undecided, about the same margin the pollster found in September. The disapproval rate among Republicans (44 percent of the sample) is 87 percent, while Obama's approval rating among Democrats (27 percent of the sample) is a lesser 75 percent. Independents (23 percent) are split at 46 percent approving compared to 45 percent disapproving. They make up 23 percent of the sample. The margin of error is 4 points.

    Kentucky
    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22; Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 30

    2008 election: McCain 57 percent, Obama 41 percent
    SurveyUSA says 58 percent of Kentuckians disapprove of Obama's performance compared to 38 percent who approve and 4 percent who are undecided. This is about the same margin SurveyUSA found in September. Eighty-seven percent of Republicans disapprove, but the figure that catches the eye is that Democrats approve of Obama's performance by only 56 percent to 41 percent. Independents are divided with 48 percent disapproving and 46 percent approving. Republicans make up a third of the sample, Democrats comprise 46 percent and independents account for 18 percent. The margin of error is 4 points.
    Rasmussen says 53 percent disapprove of Obama's performance compared to 37 percent who approve, with those who "strongly" disapprove -- 41 percent -- being the largest group by a double-digit margin. Fifty-seven percent oppose the health plan that Obama and Democrats are pushing compared to 39 percent who favor it.
    Maine
    2008 election: Obama 58 percent, McCain 40 percent
    Daily Kos/Research 2000 says 67 percent of voters view Obama favorably compared to 25 percent who see him unfavorably with 8 percent undecided. Independents see him favorably by 73 percent to 18 percent.
    Public Policy Polling says voters approve of Obama's job performance by 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. They are split on his health care reform proposal with 41 percent favoring it, 40 percent opposed and 19 percent undecided.
    Massachusetts
    2008 election: Obama 62 percent, McCain 36 percent
    Suffolk says 60 percent approve of Obama's job performance compared to 36 percent who don't with 4 percent undecided.
    Rasmussen says 54 percent of voters approve of the job Obama is doing while 44 percent disapprove and 1 percent is not sure. Fifty percent favor the health care plan he is pushing while 46 percent oppose it and 4 percent are undecided.
    Michigan
    Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 21; Epic-MRA, Oct. 11-15
    Rasmussen says voters approve of Obama's performance by a 52 percent to 47 percent margin, with 1 percent undecided.
    EPIC-MRA says Obama is seen favorably by 51 percent and unfavorably by 45 percent with 4 percent undecided. In June, this poll reported that 60 percent regarded Obama favorably and 34 percent unfavorably.
    Minnesota

    St. Cloud State University, Oct. 26 - Nov. 4

    2008 election: Obama 54 percent, McCain 44 percent

    Fifty percent say Obama is doing an excellent or good job, 22 percent rate him only as fair, and 25 percent as poor.

    Missouri
    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22; Public Policy Polling, Nov. 13-15
    2008 election: McCain 49.3 percent, Obama 49.2 percent
    SurveyUSA says 58 percent of Missourians disapprove of the job Obama is doing compared to 38 percent who approve with 4 percent undecided. Independents, who make up 32 percent of the sample, disapprove by 65 percent to 33 percent.
    PPP says Missourians disapprove of the job Obama is doing by 52 percent to 43 percent with 6 percent undecided. They oppose his health care plan by 55 percent to 34 percent with 12 percent undecided.
    New Hampshire
    Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 14

    2008 election: Obama 54 percent, McCain 44 percent
    Voters split 50-50 on Obama's job performance.
    New Jersey
    Fairleigh Dickinson University, Oct. 22 - Nov. 1; Public Policy Polling, Oct. 31 - Nov. 1; Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 29; Quinnipiac, Oct. 20-26
    2008 election: Obama 57 percent, McCain 41 percent
    Fifty-three percent approve of the job Obama is doing compared to 37 percent who don't with 10 percent undecided, according to Fairleigh Dickinson.
    Public Policy Polling has voters divided at 45 percent each on whether or not they approve of Obama's performance with 10 percent undecided.
    Rasmussen says 55 percent approve of Obama's performance and 44 percent disapprove with 1 percent undecided.
    Quinnipiac says voters approve of the job Obama is doing by 55 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent undecided. The New York Times says Obama is viewed favorably by 62 percent and unfavorably by 25 percent with 12 percent not expressing an opinion.
    New Mexico

    SurveyUSA, Sept. 27-28

    2008 election: Obama 57 percent, McCain 42 percent

    Fifty percent approve of Obama's performance compared to 45 percent who do not with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 points. Whites disapprove by 59 percent to 38 percent while Hispanics, 39 percent of the sample, approve by 68 percent to 29 percent.

    New York

    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22; Daily Kos/Research 2000, Oct. 19-21 Quinnipiac University, Oct. 14-19

    2008 election: Obama 63 percent, McCain 36 percent

    SurveyUSA says New Yorkers approve of the job Obama is doing by a 53 percent to 39 percent margin with 8 percent undecided. Independents, who make up 22 percent of the sample, disapprove by 58 percent to 23 percent with 19 percent undecided. This is down from SurveyUSA's September survey which has New Yorkers approving of Obama by a 63 percent to 33 percent margin.

    Research 2000 says Obama is seen favorably by 53 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent with 8 percent undecided. Independents see him favorably by a 57 percent to 35 percent margin.

    Quinnipiac says New Yorkers approve of Obama's job performance by 62 percent to 32 percent with 6 percent undecided.

    Siena reports Obama is seen favorably by 55 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent undecided.

    Nevada

    2008 election: Obama 55 percent, McCain 43 percent
    Fifty-three percent disapprove of Obama's performance compared to 46 percent who approve. Fifty-two percent oppose his health care plan compared to 45 percent who support it.
    North Carolina
    Public Policy Polling, Nov. 9-11; Elon University, Oct. 26-29
    2008 election: Obama 49.7 percent, McCain 49.4 percent
    PPP says North Carolina voters split at 47 percent each on whether they approve or disapprove of the job Obama is doing with 6 percent undecided. Thirty-two percent of voters give him a report card grade of "A," 17 percent say "B," 10 percent give him a "C," 11 percent a "D" and 29 percent flunk him.
    Elon University says 52 percent approve of Obama's performance compared to 44 percent who disapprove with 3 percent undecided. Forty-nine percent disapprove of his handling of the economy while 43 percent approve and 7 percent are undecided. Thirty-four percent trust Obama to deal with the key issues facing the country compared to 12 percent for congressional Democrats and 26 percent for congressional Republicans. Twenty-one percent don't trust any of them and 5 percent are undecided. Forty-three percent disapprove of Obama's handling of the war in Afghanistan compared to 41 percent who approve with 12 percent undecided.
    Ohio
    2008 election: Obama 51 percent, McCain 47 percent
    The big news in the Quinnipiac poll was that for the first time more Ohio voters disapproved of Obama's job performance than approved, with 50 percent giving him negative marks compared to 45 percent who viewed him positively with 5 percent undecided. Obama's approval had been in the 60s from February through May, dipped to 49 percent in July and stood at 53 percent approving and 42 percent disapproving in September. And, for the first time, when asked who voters trusted more on handling health care, congressional Republicans tied Obama at 40 percent with 21 percent undecided. In September, respondents favored Obama by 49 percent to 28 percent. Voters oppose Obama's health care plan by 55 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided and disapprove of his handling of the issue by a similar margin. They disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy by 53 percent to 42 percent with 5 percent undecided, compared to 48 percent who approved and 46 percent who disapproved in September
    Oregon

    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22
    2008 election: Obama 57 percent, McCain 40 percent

    SurveyUSA says Oregonians are split on whether they approve or disapprove of Obama's job performance at 47 percent each, with 6 percent undecided. Independents (24 percent of the sample) disapprove of Obama's performance by 52 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent undecided. In September, 59 percent had approved of Obama's performance compared to 37 percent who didn't in SurveyUSA's poll.

    Pennsylvania

    Franklin & Marshall, Oct. 20-25; Quinnipiac University, Sept. 22-28

    2008 election: Obama 54 percent, McCain 44 percent
    F & M says Obama is seen favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 39 percent with 13 percent undecided, the first time since taking office that his favorable number was below 55 percent. Forty percent say he is doing an excellent or good job, 31 percent rate his performance as only fair, and 28 percent give him poor marks.
    Quinnipiac says voters approve of the way Obama is handling his job by 49 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent undecided. They are split on his handling of the economy with 47 percent disapproving, 46 percent approving and 7 percent undecided. They oppose the health care plan Obama is pushing by 47 percent to 41 percent.
    Texas
    2008 election: McCain 55 percent, Obama 44 percent
    Rasmussen says that 58 percent of Texans say the stimulus plan that Obama and Congress enacted earlier this year has hurt the economy, 26 percent said it has had no impact and 12 percent believe it has helped. Eighty-seven percent oppose the health care reform package being pushed by Obama and congressional Democrats (with 76 percent "strongly" opposing it) while 12 percent are in favor.
    The University of Texas poll says 52 percent disapprove of Obama's performance compared to 41 percent who approve and 7 percent who have no opinion.
    Virginia
    2008 election: Obama 53 percent, McCain 46 percent
    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-22; Public Policy Polling, Oct. 31- Nov.1; Suffolk University, Oct. 26-28; Roanoke College, Oct. 21-27; Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 27; Virginia Commonwealth University, Oct. 21-25
    SurveyUSA says Virginians disapprove of Obama's job performance by 60 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent undecided. Ninety-one percent of Republicans (42 percent of the sample) disapprove. A lesser 73 percent of Democrats (32 percent of the sample) approve of Obama's performance. Independents (26 percent of the sample) disapprove by 59 percent to 39 percent with 3 percent undecided.
    Public Policy Polling says Virginians disapprove of Obama's performance by 52 percent to 41 percent with 6 percent undecided.
    Suffolk says 50 percent approve of Obama's performance, 42 percent disapprove and 8 percent are undecided.
    Roanoke says 46 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance, 45 percent approve and 10 percent give him mixed marks.
    Rasmussen says 51 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance while 49 percent approve and 1 percent is undecided.
    VCU says 49 percent rate Obama's performance excellent or good while 48 percent say it is fair or poor with 3 percent undecided.

    Washington State

    SurveyUSA, Nov. 20-28
    2008 election: Obama 57 percent, McCain 40 percent

    SurveyUSA says Washingtonians are split at 48 percent each, with 4 percent undecided, on whether they approve or not of Obama's job performance. Independents (35 percent of the sample) disapprove of his performance by 52 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error is 4.1 points. In September, SurveyUSA reported that 53 three percent approve of Obama's performance compared to 42 percent who disapprove with 4 percent undecided.

    Wisconsin
    2008 election: Obama 56 percent, McCain 42 percent

    PPP says those approving or disapproving of Obama's job performance are tied at 47 percent each with 6 percent undecided. Voters oppose his health care plan by 52 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent undecided. Independents (37 percent of the sample) disapprove of Obama's performance by 50 percent to 42 percent with 7 percent undecided, and they are against his health care plan by 58 percent to 21 percent with 11 percent undecided.





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    Bruce Drake

    Drake began his career with the New York Daily News, spending most of that time in Washington covering Congress, national politics and the Reagan White House... more

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