Mike Huckabee's Loss is Sarah Palin's Gain

It's unclear whether Huckabee was seriously considering another run for president, but a recent Gallup Poll showed him leading all Republicans in the 2012 race -- and coming within four points of President Obama.

Appearing on MSNBC's Hardball Wednesday night, former McCain and Bush advisor Mark McKinnon put it best when he said of Huckabee, "His career in politics is done; stick a fork in him."

Sarah Palin's resignation as governor wasn't easy to spin, but it didn't cost four police officers their lives. In contrast with the universal assessment that Huckabee is toast, the punditry issued plenty of caveats regarding her future. A few actually supported her move, with Republican strategist Mary Matilin going so far as to call her decision to resign "brilliant."

Nobody thinks Huckabee's move was brilliant. Simply put, squeeze all you want -- there is no lemonade to come from this lemon. Unless you're a Sarah Palin fan, that is.

In politics, as in gang warfare, power struggles are often fought over "turf." Sometimes this can literally be geographic turf; more often, it's ideological turf. Assuming she does want to run for president, which I believe to be the case, Palin stands to gain the most politically from Huckabee's fall from grace. Both are charismatic former governors who rose from relative obscurity in 2008 and whose folksy, friendly manner -- and everyman (or everywoman) conservatism -- gave them a tremendous appeal among conservatives, especially Christian conservatives, who figure so strongly in the Republican nominating process.

Huckabee became a top-tier contender for the GOP nomination in 2008 after he won the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus. His down-to-earth appeal shone brightly during Republican debates, and that surprise win in Iowa helped him outlast Mitt Romney and finish second to McCain.

Looking ahead to 2012, Iowa now seems tailor-made for Palin. Huckabee remained popular there and the "electability" argument that bedeviled him in 2008 would have likely worked to his advantage against Palin. No longer.

Huckabee did not have an affair, or get arrested, or do any of the things that would have been overt acts that he might accept blame for. He showed mercy. But it has come back to haunt him. On one level it seems unfair, as it did in 1988 to Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis, pilloried for a furlough program that put a monster named Willie Horton back on the streets. But such issues resonate with voters, and for good reason. Unlike personal peccadilloes, such actions relate directly to the job of an executive.

Prior to becoming the butt of jokes on "Saturday Night Live," Sarah Palin's political career could only have been described as "charmed." Those who mock her chances of winning the presidency should note that a major obstacle has just been instantly and unexpectedly removed. Who knows what else might happen between now and Election Day 2012?