The State of the Union, According to the Polls

If polls are one way of looking at the state of the nation when it comes to its leaders and the challenges facing them, the picture they paint is this: a president struggling under the weight of an enormous range of front-burner issues, an opposition party that is not markedly benefiting from his problems, and a public which -- whether they are pro or con -- doesn't believe that initiatives on health care, Afghanistan and the economy will make things better.

The major points of inquiry of the polls in the last few months fall into several groupings: President Obama's job performance, the standing of the Republicans, the economy, Afghanistan, and health care,

Here are some takeaways on each after reviewing dozens of polls:

President Obama's Performance

The big polling news over the last few weeks has been that Obama's job approval ratings have dipped under 50 percent, with Gallup falling into line in November. (Rush Limbaugh accused the pollster of padding the number of black respondents to keep Obama above 50 percent, an assertion that Gallup called "a complete and inexplicable fabrication." )

But the slippage really began in July, when a series of polls showed that as economic hardship continued, Obama was falling from the stratosphere of job approval ratings in the 60 percent or above range down to the mid-50s.

Voters still like Obama. His favorable-to-unfavorable ratio in most polls is higher than his job approval rating. The Marist Institute on Tuesday had his job approval down to 46 percent, but said 55 percent saw him favorably while 41 percent did not.

A number of factors are at play here. When polls go beyond the overall job approval rating, where Obama is still seen more positively than negatively, albeit by smaller margins, the results frequently show disapproval of his stands on specific issues, whether it is health care or Afghanistan (although the polls on the latter have fluctuated).

The economy is certainly a key driver of what is happening with Obama's numbers. The CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted Dec. 2-3 found that Obama's approval rating fell from 55 percent in mid-November to 48 percent. Polling director Keating Holland said, "The biggest drop in approval comes from non-college-educated white voters. That's one indication among many that Obama's growing unpopularity may be more related to unemployment and the poor economy."

In this year's gubernatorial elections, independents fled the Democratic candidates and they have been moving away from Obama as well. The latest CBS News survey had support among them for Obama dropping from 52 percent to 45 percent. Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University poll noted in early November that the erosion in Obama's numbers is occurring mostly among independents who, after being turned off by the Bush years, "have concluded Obama isn't offering their kind of solutions."

The downward trend in Obama's approval ratings can also be seen in some polls conducted in individual states. In three key southwestern states that went for Obama by 54 percent or more in 2008 -- Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico -- he's either right at the 50 percent mark or in negative territory. In Iowa, where his campaign first took off and which he carried with 54 percent, his job approval now stands at 49 percent. And in Ohio, a Quinnipiac poll in early November said that, for the first time in its surveys, more voters disapproved of Obama's performance than approved.

The Republicans

The Republicans do not necessarily profit from Obama's woes. In just about every poll that asks the question, the public trusts Obama more than congressional Republicans on most key issues. A Washington Post/ABC News poll in mid-November said Americans trusted Democrats in general more than Republicans by 47 percent to 31 percent to do a better job of coping with the main problems the country will face over the next few years.

A Quinnipiac poll last month found 58 percent disapprove of the way congressional Republicans are doing their job, 53 percent had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party, and 45 percent trusted Obama more to handle the health care issue. (Thirty-six percent said they trusted the Republicans more.)

The Republicans also have some issues to resolve within their own party. A Washington Post poll of Republicans found that just 49 percent believe GOP leaders are taking the party in the right direction while 42 percent say they are not. That contrasts with 2005, when 76 percent said the GOP was headed in the right direction and 23 percent said it was not. The poll also listed the words used most often by Republicans to describe the party. They are, in order, "conservative" followed more distantly by "weak," "disorganized," "leaderless" and "Palin."

The bright spot for the GOP? A Gallup poll said that Republicans now out-poll Democrats by 48 percent to 44 percent when registered voters were asked who they would back on a "generic" ballot for Congress next year.

The Budget Deficit

This is an Achilles' heel for Obama. In most polls, public concern about the growing amount of red ink and disapproval of Obama's handling of the issue runs high.

But it also impacts several of the major issues before Obama and Congress. While Obama's Afghan speech may have helped the poll numbers on his policies and handling of the issue, a USA Today/Gallup survey found that by nearly 3-to-1, Americans worry that the costs of the war will make it more difficult to deal with problems close to home.

And a Kaiser Family Foundation poll drilled down into the reasons that 36 percent of those surveyed were against reforming health care now. The main factors driving that opposition were the beliefs that the U.S. can't afford it and that the focus should be on the economy first.

The Economy

The public is still, for now, cutting Obama some slack on the economy. In Monday's Marist poll, a majority disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy. But, they said by a 65 percent to 27 percent margin that today's conditions were mostly ones Obama inherited from President Bush. Most other polls have come up with the same result.

The question is when, in the public view, does the economy become Obama's? "The issue of whether the economic problems are President Obama's doing or still a carryover from President Bush will be critical in how voters approach the 2010 midterm elections," said Marist's Lee M. Miringoff.

A mid-November CNN/Opinion Research poll, asking the question about Republicans in general rather than Bush specifically, found the percentage of Americans who primarily blame the Republicans for the current state of the economy has dropped from 53 percent in May to 38 percent. CNN's Holland said that if the rate of decline continues, "only a handful of voters will blame the economy on the Republicans by the time next year's midterm elections roll around."

What's not in question is how darkly the public views the situation. A recent Hart Research/Opinion Strategies poll said 71 percent regard the unemployment rate and loss of jobs "very" seriously and another 18 percent "fairly" seriously. (Health care reform was second with 60 percent regarding it very seriously and 18 percent fairly seriously). A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in late October found that 80 percent of those surveyed were very or somewhat dissatisfied with the state of the economy.

And, in that Marist poll, 77 percent said they knew someone who has lost his or her job in the last six months. Forty-five percent believe that conditions will stay about the same in the next year, 29 percent expect them to get better and 26 percent predict they'll get worse.

Afghanistan

Public opinion on U.S. policy in Afghanistan and Obama's handling of it had been going south for months. But Obama appears to have turned this around for now with his speech last week laying out the strategy for a surge of 30,000 additional American troops and a withdrawal that could begin in July, 2011.

As recently as early November, polls by Pew Research, CNN/Opinion Research and others were showing pluralities or majorities against sending more troops. Obama's handling of Afghan policy was drawing negative marks. Now, new polls by Quinnipiac, CNN/Opinion Research and Gallup find most Americans supporting the plan Obama laid out and the number of those approving his handling of the issue is on the rise.

That said, most are not optimistic the strategy will achieve its goals. The CNN poll said 57 percent believe the situation will end in stalemate, two-thirds don't believe Afghanistan in the next few years will have a stable, democratic government capable of ensuring the country's security, and 61 percent don't believe that conditions will be good enough in July 2011 to start bringing troops home.

As with the economy, the big question is when the public begins to hold Obama accountable for the situation in Afghanistan. Right now, they don't. One of the CNN polls said nearly two-thirds of the public still blame former President Bush for the situation Obama inherited in Afghanistan. But 54 percent said the burden of blame would shift to Obama if conditions in Afghanistan don't improve by 2011, with only 34 percent still inclined to point the finger at Bush.

Health Care Reform

There have been a variety of outcomes in polls testing support or opposition to health care reform overall, as well as polls measuring support or opposition to specific parts of reform proposals, such as the public option. Some of these numbers are hard to compare because of the different ways questions were asked. When one poll, for instance, asks "Do you support the health care reform plan being advocated by President Obama and the Democrats?," the question that comes to mind is which plan and with what mix of provisions?