Democratic Civil Wars Likely as Left Weighs Primary Challenges Over Health

Democrats are having fun highlighting the "civil war" within the Republican Party, but their schadenfreude may be short-lived. Conservative and moderate Democrats are failing one liberal litmus test after another, stoking not just frustration on the left but also potential primary challenges.

The list of those tests starts with the public option, a proposed government-sponsored health insurance plan that appears to be losing ground on Capitol Hill despite continued popularity in opinion polls. And that's just the beginning. As filing deadlines approach, particularly for later primaries, restive liberals could expand their scrutiny to votes on abortion, global warming, Afghanistan, gay rights and labor issues.

"Democrats are generally discouraged across the board because they don't feel that anything's getting accomplished," says Ben Tribbett, executive director of the Accountability Now Political Action Committee. Already there's the real possibility that Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter will challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who has voted against a public option and is sagging in state polls.

As for the House, "if there hasn't been progress made, I think you'll see a number of people stepping forward in a large number of districts" to challenge Democratic incumbents, Tribbett told me. He has so far been to meetings in eight states where activists may organize primary challenges, including the Pittsburgh area district of health-bill opponent Jason Altmire.

The GOP civil war is already going full-bore in primary campaigns, on blogs and to a limited extent in Congress. It pits moderates against conservatives, compromisers against absolutists, and establishment picks against the unanointed. It's a predictable war for the soul and future of a party that suffered crushing losses in 2006 and 2008. It has all the earmarks of an ideological conflict, as moderates skitter self-protectively to the right. But activist Erick Ericson, founder of RedState.com, prefers to think of it as a coup against failed leadership. "Conservatives can win if we fight back. Who is with me?" he wrote last week.

The Democratic Party is in power thanks to a diverse coalition and is trying to accomplish many of President Obama's sweeping, complex campaign goals. The result is a big tent so strained at the seams that it threatens to burst open on a daily basis. The battle often looks like a straight-up competition between different wings of the party, but those agitating for primary challenges say it's not that simple.

Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas says the "netroots" target politicians who are representing "corporatist interests" rather than their constituents and mobilize behind "populist candidates that play well in their states" -- people like Jon Tester in Montana and Jim Webb in Virginia.

"If an elected official is well-aligned with his or her constituents, there's nothing people like me can do about it, or will do about it," he told me in an e-mail. "On the other hand, if they have forgotten who they represent, and their constituents are restless, then they have everything to worry about. Not every obstructionist Democrat falls under that category, but most do."

The Kos roll call of health-reform obstructionists includes Lincoln and Sens. Max Baucus, Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman, all of whom he named last week in a blog post headlined "Idiocy." He declined to tell me who else he considers obstructionist. Some reluctant Democrats -- including Nelson of Nebraska and Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota -- are not up for re-election until 2012 and in any case are not out of step with their states. Lincoln is in the bull's eye as the only one of the group running in 2010 and vulnerable to challenges from both Republicans and fellow Democrats.

Adam Green, a co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, points to a PCCC poll in October that found 56 percent of Arkansas residents support a public option; 49 percent have a negative view of Lincoln; and she barely defeats two potential GOP rivals. She does even worse in a Rasmussen poll and only slightly better in a Daily Kos poll.

"She's a great example of a Democrat not representing her constituents and not doing well," Green said. "Our goal is to win. We're not picking fights on issues that force politicians to be out of step with their constituents."

The Democrats have a competitive primary already in full swing in Pennsylvania, where Rep. Joe Sestak is running against Sen. Arlen Specter. Specter's moderation drove him out of the GOP last spring -- but it could be his undoing in his new party. Shortly after he switched parties and received Obama's blessing, he said Minnesota Republican Norm Coleman should be re-appointed to his old Senate seat as courts tried to determine a winner; he voted against Obama's budget; he said he might vote against health reform; he voted against credit card relief for consumers; and he set up a Web site that looked like a cancer charity but was actually a campaign fundraising tool.

Green, who rattled off that list, said PPPC is heavily involved in the Pennsylvania Senate race and plans to "go deep" in a half-dozen House races. He won't say where but he did give clues. PCCC took out online ads against 10 Blue Dog Democrats who voted against the final House health bill, which included a public option. The highest response rate in terms of people clicking on the ads was in South Dakota, represented by Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Green said the state is "pretty populist" and "there's an opening for somebody who wanted to jump into a primary" against her.

PCCC also commissioned a poll of Virginia Democrats and independents who voted for Obama in 2008 but did not show up for the governor's race this year. Forty percent said that it made them less likely to vote when Democrat Creigh Deeds said he would "opt out" of a federal public insurance option. Green called that a signal that the base may not turn out for Democrats who opposed the public option -- and "there would likely be a lot more energy" around challengers to those members.

Democrats need only look to Republican Senate primaries in Florida, Illinois and elsewhere to see litmus tests in action. As they try to meet ideological standards without compromising their integrity or electability, the candidates' contortions are not pretty.

Progressives are advancing the idea that they can perform a great service to Democrats by weeding out weak incumbents. Sure, there could be intramural fireworks in the primaries, they say, but the greatest harm is leaving the vulnerable incumbents in place and watching them lose in November as the base stays home.

That's a self-serving argument and disregards complications such as the fact that many of these centrists represent districts or states won last year by Republican presidential nominee John McCain. Still, in a set of 2010 elections that look increasingly dangerous for incumbents, it's a discussion worth having.