Hill Democrats, Republicans Match Up Closely in Two "Generic" Polls

Two polls were out today with "generic" match-ups for next year's congressional election and they had three things in common: the percentages of those who chose an unnamed Democratic or Republican candidate were close, independents held the key to the vote in each poll, and both pollsters saw it as an encouraging sign for the GOP.

Forty-eight percent of voters in a Gallup poll conducted Dec. 11-13 said they'd choose a Democrat compared to
45 percent who would choose a Republican, a turnaround from last month when Republicans held the edge by 48 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error is 4 points.

In the early November poll, independents were also the key, favoring the GOP candidate by 52 percent to 30 percent. But this time, that advantage for Republicans among independents narrowed to a 44 percent to 30 percent margin.

Gallup's analysis: "The story over the last three months has been the relatively close standing of the two parties in Gallup's monthly trial-heat election ballots. If this continues to be the case next November, Republicans' normal turnout advantage could propel them on Election Day 2010 to a positive margin of the congressional vote over Democrats, with a resulting pickup in House seats."

Public Policy Polling, in a survey conducted Dec. 4-7, also found a close match-up with 44 percent favoring the Democrats to 42 percent picking the Republicans, with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.8 points. In contrast to Gallup, PPP had the Democrats over the Republicans by 46 percent to 38 percent last month.

The PPP survey had indenedents souring on both parties with 66 percent disapproving of the job congressional Democrats were doing and 69 percent disapproving of the Republicans.

"Republicans are more and more in position to pick up a lot of Congressional seats next year," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "The tide continues to turn against the Democrats and that's putting some districts that haven't been close in quite a while into the competitive category."