Polls Differ on a Thompson Challenge to Gillibrand in New York

A pair of polls out today differ on how well New York City Comptroller William Thompson Jr. would do if he challenges Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand for the Democratic nomination, but at this point, neither is conclusive given how many voters haven't really focused on that possibility.

Thompson ran a surprisingly strong race against Mayor Michael Bloomberg, despite the millions of his own money Bloomberg poured into the mayoral contest. Thompson was reportedly considering a primary race against Gillibrand, who hails from upstate, and is expected to decide next month, according to the New York Times.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted Dec. 7-13 had Thompson ahead of Gillibrand 41 percent to 28 percent with 28 percent undecided. A Siena Research Institute poll conducted Dec. 6-9 puts Gillibrand ahead of Thompson by 32 percent to 23 percent, but says more than a third had not decided on a candidate to support.

But both Democrats trail former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani in general election match-ups. In the Quinnipiac poll, Giuliani leads Gillibrand 50 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.4 points for the general election match-up. Giuliani would get the votes of 92 percent of Republicans and 23 percent of Democrats. Gillibrand is supported by just 68 percent of Democrats. Independents favor Giuliani by 57 percent to 32 percent.

Giuliani leads Thompson 52 percent to 36 percent with 9 percent undecided. Again. Giuliani would siphon off 25 percent of Democratic votes, and leads among independents by 60 percent to 28 percent.

One of Gillibrand's problems still seems to be that she hasn't made great progress in getting New York voters to know her better since her appointment to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton. Fifty-eight percent of voters say they don't know enough about her to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion. By contrast, Giuliani is seen favorably by 59 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent with only 7 percent not knowing enough about him to express an opinion.

Siena's poll had similar results. Giuliani leads Gillibrand 49 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error is 3.8 points. He leads Thompson 56 percent to 34 percent.