Senate passage of a landmark health bill helped Democrats end 2009 on a note of triumph. They are acting at least somewhat like an organized political party, Will Rogers' famous quip notwithstanding, and President Obama is on track to avoid Bill Clinton's fate of failing to deliver on a major campaign pledge.
Acting organized is no problem for Republicans. They have marched in lockstep against nearly everything proposed by Obama or Democrats or, in the case of spending to bolster the economy, even their own former president, George W. Bush. This approach has cemented a firm identity heading into 2010 and the midterm elections. It also allowed them to claim a symbolic victory at year's end with the conversion of former Democratic Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama.
Still, it was an exhausting year, and the choices made by both parties were risky. What should party leaders do to maximize their gains and reverse any toll the year has taken?
Obama has expended enormous amounts of political capital on bills he had to pass, such as the $787-billion economic recovery package, and on goals he was determined to meet or move toward, including health reform, financial reform and an energy bill that caps carbon emissions. He is well along on all three signature issues, and has achieved less visible shifts in education policy as well.
Yet the bleak jobs picture, aggravated by the long and heated conflict over health, took its toll on his approval ratings. About half the country approves of his job performance, down from two-thirds just after his inauguration. The question now before Obama is whether political capital is a renewable resource.
Obama already has made clear he is resolved in 2010 to devote himself to jobs and deficit reduction. That poses challenges. For one thing, spending money or offering tax breaks to create jobs will increase an already frightening deficit. For another, any steps on jobs could take months to show results. Obama may get a break in that stimulus money from the 2009 recovery act will be flowing faster than ever in 2010. The delayed impact could yield better jobs numbers and, if the president plays his cards right, credit for his administration.
That leads us to showing the country he cares. Better economic numbers are good. Better "optics" would also be good. Obama should resolve to visit more places where unemployment is high and talk to people who are struggling, maybe even hold a town meeting for the jobless in a hard-hit community. He could also go more often to places where federal dollars are making a difference, particularly firms in the clean energy sector. Vice President Biden is a regular at stimulus events, but Obama is a far hotter commodity when it comes to drawing the media spotlight. And let's face it, Biden already is seen as approachable and empathetic. Those are muscles Obama needs to exercise more in public.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been relentless in pushing Obama's agenda through the House, one controversial vote after another. The margins have sometimes been narrow, but Democrats have prevailed on the economic recovery bill, a financial reform package meant to prevent another economic meltdown, and climate-change and health-reform bills so complicated and opposed by so many interests that their passage still seems like a miracle. Or a nightmare, depending on where you stand.
Pelosi's allies in the House and White House constantly praise her focus and work ethic. Obama aide Valerie Jarrett told me Pelosi has been "an extraordinary speaker." Pelosi even was a runner-up for Time's Person of the Year. But Republicans contend Pelosi has led her members, particularly the centrist ones from conservative districts, off a cliff. And outside the Beltway, Pelosi is hardly beloved. Polls show her favorable rating at about half her unfavorable rating, and there are few people with no opinion -- almost everybody knows who she is.
Still, Pelosi's ratings haven't fluctuated much over the course of a contentious year. And her 33 percent favorable rating in a Rasmussen poll last month was the highest of the four top Democrats and Republicans in Congress. This despite the controversial agenda over which Pelosi has presided and her accusation last May that the CIA misled and lied to her at a 2002 briefing about whether it was at that time using waterboarding on detainees. She did herself no good, despite a report that suggests she was right.
No doubt Pelosi already has resolved that in 2010, she won't get into fights with national security agencies. She should also be a very visible head cheerleader for the House's accomplishments, and figure out how her centrist members can frame them to their advantage in tough races next year. If at all possible, she should stick to mom-and-apple-pie issues on the House floor. Have we mentioned jobs, jobs, jobs? If controversial matters must be addressed, make the Senate go first. And finally, get onto the Oprah Winfrey show before Oprah shuts it down in 2011. If anyone can make Pelosi seem warmer and fuzzier, it's Oprah.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid went home to Nevada this month having negotiated and presided over passage of the health bill, thus allowing Democrats to avoid being branded incompetent as a governing party. His Democratic colleagues consider him heroic. But his approval rating in his home state is low, and polls show several Republicans could beat him next year.
In part this reflects his national leadership role, which entails passing big initiatives by whatever means necessary. On health, for instance, Reid was pretty much forced to cut deals with every member of the Democratic caucus who wanted something for his or her state, or wanted something in or out of the bill, or both. Some of the arrangements were so baldly outrageous that ultimately they will not survive in their current form. The infamous Nebraska Medicaid giveaway to Sen. Ben Nelson is certainly in that category.
Over the past year, Reid gave some of the shortest, strangest and most inscrutable press conferences ever held on Capitol Hill. He also made remarks that might be gaffes, or not. His unforced errors have included accusing a female rival for his seat of opposing mammograms, calling town-hall protestors "evil-mongers," comparing health bill opponents to slave owners, and seeming to characterize as slackers any senators who didn't bargain hard enough to get special deals in the final health package.
In 2010, Reid could resolve to avoid off-the-cuff remarks that he might not have meant to say in quite that way. He also could try to tame his fondness for being deliberately provocative -- that is, to limit the times he really does mean to say it that way. Beyond that, New Year's resolutions may not do Reid much good because there's only so much he can control. There is unfinished legislative business bound to stir controversy, such as the energy bill passed by the House amid Republican catcalls of "cap and tax." There's the economy, which has whacked the Nevada gaming industry and sent foreclosures to record surges. There's the Senate, where even 60 votes don't guarantee majority rule. There is Joe Lieberman. Enough said.
Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Republican Leader John Boehner, have bet their futures on trying to kill all major Obama initiatives with the exception of his troop surge in Afghanistan. They and their troops plan to campaign against the health reform bill that's almost sure to land on Obama's desk in a month or two. They also are on offense about Obama's handling of the economy, terrorism and federal spending.
All this looks like it's working for them now. Three out of four polls this month show Republicans leading Democrats when people are asked which party they'd choose for Congress in November. But on certain fundamentals, the GOP rates as bad as or worse than Democrats -- for instance, 28 percent had a positive view of the party in a recent NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, while 35 percent said that about Democrats. McConnell and Boehner, meanwhile, are not well known and among those who do have an opinion about them, more disapprove than approve.
One drawback of the GOP approach is that the national mood could change if, say, the jobless rate declines and more troops come home from Iraq. Another is that their proposed solutions to some national problems -- more tax breaks, less regulation -- may remind people of Bush policies that led to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. On health, meanwhile, the House GOP's four suggestions all are included in some variation in the Senate health bill.
I have just two recommended resolutions for Republicans. One, let your people go. Stop the pressure on lawmakers who need or want to vote for a health reform bill or want to work with Democrats on an energy-and-climate bill. Two, raid your think tanks for creative new ideas on subjects across the board -- from transportation and national security to health, education and welfare. People may vote for GOP candidates in November if they are put off by what Democrats have done. But the comeback won't last long if Republicans stand for taking the country back to a very flawed future.
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Republicans march in lockstep and democrats are an organized party! I need read no further to understand that this is just another liberal rant!
RATE THIS COMMENT: (41)
joran111
6:17AM Dec 29th 2009
I guess you've missed all the congressional votes where 100% of the Republicans voted against anything proposed by a Democrat, and for anything proposed by a Republican.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (-30)
park457799
10:04AM Dec 29th 2009
I know what the people should resolve, resolve to vote out every democrat currently in office. These people are yellow-bellied cowards, afraid of the Obama Administration and will do whatever is necessary to stay in their good graces. VOTE THEM ALL OUT!!!!!!
RATE THIS COMMENT: (36)
jrotced02
6:27AM Dec 29th 2009
So...you lunatics on the reich are still trying to drag God into this? More proof that none of you deserve to have your hand-picked panderers in any elected office.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (-34)
park457799
11:16PM Dec 29th 2009
Yea, God help us!!!!!! God help save us from the insane Obama Administration and Dumocrats!!!!!!
RATE THIS COMMENT: (12)
MK
6:45AM Dec 29th 2009
This article and its author are part of the left wing one world govt new world order conspiracy. Vote in 2010!
RATE THIS COMMENT: (42)
jrotced02
7:03AM Dec 29th 2009
I don't believe in polls, but for those of you who do, this may support the fact that President Obama will be re-elected. I have already predicted that President Obama will beat his Republican opponent with 58% of the electorate. Facing such a daunting loss, the Republicans will have trouble even fielding a viable candidate.
Posted by Mike Memoli In this season of retrospection, a poll from Gallup asking respondents to identify the winners and losers in politics from 2009.
Not surprisingly, those least involved in the political fray -- Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton -- score best, though President Obama fares well enough. At the other end of the spectrum: both parties in Congress, and scandal-plagued Mark Sanford.
Ben Bernanke 37 / 35 Glenn Beck 35 / 37 Sarah Palin 46 / 49
Nancy Pelosi 39 / 50 Harry Reid 31 / 42 GOP Congress 38 / 52 Joe Wilson 29 / 61 Mark Sanford 12 / 63 The Salahis 16 / 70
RATE THIS COMMENT: (-33)
hoosierpoppy
9:29AM Dec 29th 2009
Give me some of what you are smoking !
RATE THIS COMMENT: (28)
garry
7:41AM Dec 29th 2009
wake up Jill
RATE THIS COMMENT: (23)
drastichange
8:08AM Dec 29th 2009
The dems dont want to hear what the Repubs have to offer to the death bill or anything else for that matter. Obama hider of Birth records school records and ALL records of proof of citizenship will NOT be re-elected. WHo lied about his Muslim faith, who denies acts of terrorism to protect his Muslim brothers. He has lied about EVERYTHING!! He has done NOTHING to better any of our current issues. The hide-away Death bill done in complete secracy, our illegal immigration problem is solved how? OHHh thats right by rewarding them with amnesty wich insures no illegals will be covered under the death care bill. Money problems no problem he will try to borrow another couple of trillion to give away to Africa and less productive countries. Unemployment? No problem there either they will just keep importing MORE foriegn workers and handing out visas and greencards. When we are asked if wealth should be more fairly distibuted and we all think yeah it should, He wasnt asking about here in America he wants to take OUR MONEY and give it to POOR countries that we have already been suporting!!!Its not to better OUR country its destroy our country and make US LESS FORTUNATE. Im sorry but Ive been watching the same commercials begging for donations to help the same countries that in over 30 years STILL havent done ANYTHING to better themselves. This is our fault how? WHY SHOULD WE KEEP PAYING FOR IT?? We DONT have it to give but Obama keeps giving it away any how. DEPORTATION, NO PUBLIC ASSISTANCE FOR ILLEGALS WHO GIVE BIRTH HERE, NO NON LIFE SAVING MEDICAL FOR ILLEGALS. Theres AMERICANS who CANT get medical treatment but theres FREE help for illegals?? Oh thats right its not free WE PAY FOR IT!!NOW we get to pay for HIV infected forieners too since he lifted the ban. Anyone who re-elects this fool is a even BIGGER FOOL!
RATE THIS COMMENT: (27)
Chris Williams
2:43PM Dec 29th 2009
Do not take your anger as a granted truth. It will take more than that to remove Obama from the White House. Barring any catastrophe to fall on the Obama administration, the GOP has yet to raise the hand of a strong candidate who is able to bridge the divide and gather independents, moderates and Democrats like Ronald Reagan did in 1980. A mounted coalition of voters is needed defeat Obama but the ultra-conservative Tea Party wing of the party keeps pushing out the moderates, independent and disaffected Democrats with vicious attacks and monopolization of primary contenders making the reach of the GOP smaller. The two biggest names put across are Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee who are not revolutionary thinkers with political savvy or finesse who Obama can easily out-do in a debate or in a subsistent speech. Obama, the intellectual, is not stupid and can be very shrewd as some of his cabinet members are as well. A much stronger candidate on the scale or greater of a Mitt Romney is sorely needed to bring the GOP in the 21st Century.
Obama is not a Muslim because he is too liberal. A Muslim would never have spoke against Proposition 8. To believe that Barack Obama pulled one of the greatest frauds (faked citizenship) in American history makes Obama seem like a very smart and crafty individual who can certainly beat a Palin or Huckabee. However, I believe this country has better background checks in place. Fort Hood was not an act of terrorism in either a strict or a loose perception of the word. No president has done anything to stop illegal immigrant (least of all Bush Jr.). In fact, the only Presidents to propose amnesty were Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. It happened during the Reagan administration and he promised it as a one-time thing. 20 years later, Bush proposes it again but luckily it failed. No Democratic President has proposed amnesty.
No matter what illegal immigrants will be covered. If they drop out in front of the hospital, they have to take them whether they have health insurance or not and we are the ones that foot the bill. No illegal immigrant without any money is going to get a costly medical procedure and certainly no elective procedure. The only services they can get are at emergency rooms because they have absolutely no insurance. Giving them insurance allows us to factor them into growing deficits or profits rather than continuous hits of unforeseen costs of injuries and emergency room services. No politician will deport millions of illegal immigrants because they know that their friends and families who are legal will vote against them if their loved ones are snatched out of their beds at night.
In addition, George W. Bush granted millions in foreign aid to places like Africa, so Obama is not the only one. Moreover, that money that we give them comes in handy when we need help on combating terrorism globally. If we let countries starve, when something that affects us happens there, we have much harder time getting the help we need to ensure the mutual security of both nations. We also lose the populist attitude of the people who naturally come to our side as we have helped them in the past.
If I remember correctly, Bush drove up the federal deficit from a surplus to a major deficit and no Republican said a thing. And I do not know why you are so worried about people HIV coming to America unless you sleep with random partners unprotected. However, maybe you do, so I understand your concern.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (-9)
john black
3:11PM Dec 29th 2009
whay whay whay. Quit whining about something that has proven to be fabricated in the first place. Everybody in America knows none of this junk is not true but I guess the news still hasn't reached you the trailer park yet.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (-7)
pismo1
9:06AM Dec 29th 2009
I have a much better idea. Impeach Obama, Pelosi, and Reid. Then try them for Treason. On national television.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (35)
glendaaparis
11:36AM Dec 29th 2009
and in NY.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (24)
john black
3:01PM Dec 29th 2009
And while we are at it let's do the same for Bush/Cheney for lying to get us into a war. It might be too late for impeachment but justice still needs to be done.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (-13)
cowboybill117
10:28PM Dec 29th 2009
N.H. has an investigation going on Pelosi for fraud and treason. I havn't heard if it has been dropped or still ongoing.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (5)
park457799
10:09AM Dec 29th 2009
The voters should resolve to vote all Democrats out of office, all of them! They are nothing more than yellow-bellied cowards, afraid of the Obama Administration, and will do anything to stay in their good graces. VOTE THEM OUT!
RATE THIS COMMENT: (28)
joeaziz
10:10AM Dec 29th 2009
OBAMA'S TRANSPARENT PRESIDENCY: HE HAS AGREED WITH PELOSI AND REID THAT THE PLANNED BRIBE TO JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR, IF NECESSARY, SHALL NOT EXCEED 25 MILLION, FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE TAXPAYER, AND SHALL BE UNDER THE TABLE. IT'S NICE TO KNOW THE PRESIDENT IS SUCH A QUICK STUDY AND WILL NOT GIVE BRIBES OVER THE TABLE AGAIN AS HE DID FOR BAUCUS (100 MILLION) AND LANDREAU (300,000) HE CARES.
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john black
3:17PM Dec 29th 2009
A perfect waste of bandwidth space.
RATE THIS COMMENT: (-8)
park457799
10:14AM Dec 29th 2009
Obama should resolve to work on his poll numbers which are stinky!