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    What Obama, Pelosi, Reid, & the Republicans Should Resolve for 2010

    Posted:
    12/29/09
    Senate passage of a landmark health bill helped Democrats end 2009 on a note of triumph. They are acting at least somewhat like an organized political party, Will Rogers' famous quip notwithstanding, and President Obama is on track to avoid Bill Clinton's fate of failing to deliver on a major campaign pledge.

    Acting organized is no problem for Republicans. They have marched in lockstep against nearly everything proposed by Obama or Democrats or, in the case of spending to bolster the economy, even their own former president, George W. Bush. This approach has cemented a firm identity heading into 2010 and the midterm elections. It also allowed them to claim a symbolic victory at year's end with the conversion of former Democratic Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama.
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    Still, it was an exhausting year, and the choices made by both parties were risky. What should party leaders do to maximize their gains and reverse any toll the year has taken?

    Obama
    has expended enormous amounts of political capital on bills he had to pass, such as the $787-billion economic recovery package, and on goals he was determined to meet or move toward, including health reform, financial reform and an energy bill that caps carbon emissions. He is well along on all three signature issues, and has achieved less visible shifts in education policy as well.

    Yet the bleak jobs picture, aggravated by the long and heated conflict over health, took its toll on his approval ratings. About half the country approves of his job performance, down from two-thirds just after his inauguration. The question now before Obama is whether political capital is a renewable resource.

    Obama already has made clear he is resolved in 2010 to devote himself to jobs and deficit reduction. That poses challenges. For one thing, spending money or offering tax breaks to create jobs will increase an already frightening deficit. For another, any steps on jobs could take months to show results. Obama may get a break in that stimulus money from the 2009 recovery act will be flowing faster than ever in 2010. The delayed impact could yield better jobs numbers and, if the president plays his cards right, credit for his administration.

    That leads us to showing the country he cares. Better economic numbers are good. Better "optics" would also be good. Obama should resolve to visit more places where unemployment is high and talk to people who are struggling, maybe even hold a town meeting for the jobless in a hard-hit community. He could also go more often to places where federal dollars are making a difference, particularly firms in the clean energy sector. Vice President Biden is a regular at stimulus events, but Obama is a far hotter commodity when it comes to drawing the media spotlight. And let's face it, Biden already is seen as approachable and empathetic. Those are muscles Obama needs to exercise more in public.

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
    has been relentless in pushing Obama's agenda through the House, one controversial vote after another. The margins have sometimes been narrow, but Democrats have prevailed on the economic recovery bill, a financial reform package meant to prevent another economic meltdown, and climate-change and health-reform bills so complicated and opposed by so many interests that their passage still seems like a miracle. Or a nightmare, depending on where you stand.

    Pelosi's allies in the House and White House constantly praise her focus and work ethic. Obama aide Valerie Jarrett told me Pelosi has been "an extraordinary speaker." Pelosi even was a runner-up for Time's Person of the Year. But Republicans contend Pelosi has led her members, particularly the centrist ones from conservative districts, off a cliff. And outside the Beltway, Pelosi is hardly beloved. Polls show her favorable rating at about half her unfavorable rating, and there are few people with no opinion -- almost everybody knows who she is.

    Still, Pelosi's ratings haven't fluctuated much over the course of a contentious year. And her 33 percent favorable rating in a Rasmussen poll last month was the highest of the four top Democrats and Republicans in Congress. This despite the controversial agenda over which Pelosi has presided and her accusation last May that the CIA misled and lied to her at a 2002 briefing about whether it was at that time using waterboarding on detainees. She did herself no good, despite a report that suggests she was right.

    No doubt Pelosi already has resolved that in 2010, she won't get into fights with national security agencies. She should also be a very visible head cheerleader for the House's accomplishments, and figure out how her centrist members can frame them to their advantage in tough races next year. If at all possible, she should stick to mom-and-apple-pie issues on the House floor. Have we mentioned jobs, jobs, jobs? If controversial matters must be addressed, make the Senate go first. And finally, get onto the Oprah Winfrey show before Oprah shuts it down in 2011. If anyone can make Pelosi seem warmer and fuzzier, it's Oprah.

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
    went home to Nevada this month having negotiated and presided over passage of the health bill, thus allowing Democrats to avoid being branded incompetent as a governing party. His Democratic colleagues consider him heroic. But his approval rating in his home state is low, and polls show several Republicans could beat him next year.

    In part this reflects his national leadership role, which entails passing big initiatives by whatever means necessary. On health, for instance, Reid was pretty much forced to cut deals with every member of the Democratic caucus who wanted something for his or her state, or wanted something in or out of the bill, or both. Some of the arrangements were so baldly outrageous that ultimately they will not survive in their current form. The infamous Nebraska Medicaid giveaway to Sen. Ben Nelson is certainly in that category.

    Over the past year, Reid gave some of the shortest, strangest and most inscrutable press conferences ever held on Capitol Hill. He also made remarks that might be gaffes, or not. His unforced errors have included accusing a female rival for his seat of opposing mammograms, calling town-hall protestors "evil-mongers," comparing health bill opponents to slave owners, and seeming to characterize as slackers any senators who didn't bargain hard enough to get special deals in the final health package.

    In 2010, Reid could resolve to avoid off-the-cuff remarks that he might not have meant to say in quite that way. He also could try to tame his fondness for being deliberately provocative -- that is, to limit the times he really does mean to say it that way. Beyond that, New Year's resolutions may not do Reid much good because there's only so much he can control. There is unfinished legislative business bound to stir controversy, such as the energy bill passed by the House amid Republican catcalls of "cap and tax." There's the economy, which has whacked the Nevada gaming industry and sent foreclosures to record surges. There's the Senate, where even 60 votes don't guarantee majority rule. There is Joe Lieberman. Enough said.

    Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Republican Leader John Boehner, have bet their futures on trying to kill all major Obama initiatives with the exception of his troop surge in Afghanistan. They and their troops plan to campaign against the health reform bill that's almost sure to land on Obama's desk in a month or two. They also are on offense about Obama's handling of the economy, terrorism and federal spending.

    All this looks like it's working for them now. Three out of four polls this month show Republicans leading Democrats when people are asked which party they'd choose for Congress in November. But on certain fundamentals, the GOP rates as bad as or worse than Democrats -- for instance, 28 percent had a positive view of the party in a recent NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, while 35 percent said that about Democrats. McConnell and Boehner, meanwhile, are not well known and among those who do have an opinion about them, more disapprove than approve.

    One drawback of the GOP approach is that the national mood could change if, say, the jobless rate declines and more troops come home from Iraq. Another is that their proposed solutions to some national problems -- more tax breaks, less regulation -- may remind people of Bush policies that led to the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. On health, meanwhile, the House GOP's four suggestions all are included in some variation in the Senate health bill.

    I have just two recommended resolutions for Republicans. One, let your people go. Stop the pressure on lawmakers who need or want to vote for a health reform bill or want to work with Democrats on an energy-and-climate bill. Two, raid your think tanks for creative new ideas on subjects across the board -- from transportation and national security to health, education and welfare. People may vote for GOP candidates in November if they are put off by what Democrats have done. But the comeback won't last long if Republicans stand for taking the country back to a very flawed future.



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    Jill Lawrence

    Jill Lawrence is a PoliticsDaily.com columnist and former national political correspondent for USA Today... more

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