Obama's Coattails Can't Stop Democrats' Election-Year Retirements

The most startling, if unspoken, reality for rank-and-file Democrats, however, was that just one year after Barack Obama's historic win in 2008, his coattails are not as long as they had hoped. In 2009, Democrats lost high-profile races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey, states where Obama won in 2008 and raised money and campaigned for candidates in 2009. Last month, Alabama Rep. Parker Griffith switched to the GOP because, as he said, the Democratic Party did not have room for a conservative like him.

Late Tuesday, Dorgan, 67, became the first to go, shocking his fellow Democrats with a written statement that he would not seek re-election in 2010. Although Dorgan has represented the state for 30 years in Congress, a Rasmussen poll released last month showed him trailing North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven, a Republican, by more than 20 points.

Dodd, 65, faced an even tougher battle in Connecticut, with polls showing that controversies over his home loans, his 2007 relocation to Iowa in a bid for the presidency, and his key role in bailing out the banking industry had eroded his job approval rating to a dismal 40 percent. In his announcement Wednesday, Dodd said a bout with prostate cancer and the deaths of his sister and friend Sen. Ted Kennedy all led to his decision to leave the Senate, where he has served since 1981. He added defiantly that any predictions now that he would lose his seat next November would be "absurd."

Later in the day, Ritter, 53, finished the cycle, telling reporters at the state Capitol in Denver than an "intensely personal" process had resulted in his decision not to seek a second term and make his family "the priority they should be." Like Dodd and Dorgan, the governor's polls showed his approval rating had dropped significantly in the face of a sagging economy and anti-incumbent mood. A December Rasmussen poll showed Ritter getting 40 percent of the vote and trailing former Republican congressman Scott McGinnis by eight percentage points.

Brian Walsh, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Democrats' chances for 2010 have worsened dramatically since Obama took office. "Republicans went from a situation nine months ago where we were faced with a president with sky-high approval ratings, and now his numbers have come back down to earth." Walsh said that Republican candidates are leading in races for half a dozen Senate seats held by Democrats, including in Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Delaware, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania, and credits the Democratic agenda for the trend.

"I don't think it's a coincidence that in all of the states where our candidates are ahead, more voters say they disapprove of the health care bill than approve of it," he said. "I don't think the health care bill is the issue, I think it's the tip of the spear of the economic anxiety, anti-incumbent mood that you're seeing across the country. Every time voters turn around, Democrats are passing a trillion dollar bill."

Frank Newport, the editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said it's too early to tell how popular the president will be in November, but that the health of the economy and perception of the health care bill will largely determine whether the president is a lift or a drag for Democrats this year. "Obama still does very well among Democrats," Newport said. "As to the value of an Obama endorsement in a general election, call me back in the summer."

Newport also said that several trends show a favorable environment for Republicans heading into the November elections. Republicans have fared better in the generic Congressional ballot and, for the first time in four years, the percentage of people self-identifying as Democrats has fallen below 50 percent.

Despite the retirements and the trendlines, the news for Democrats wasn't necessarily all bad on Wednesday. Despite the immediate shock of the three retirements, strategists said that both Dodd and Ritter risked losing their seats to Republicans and have now opened the door for stronger Democratic candidates.

A survey by the Democratic Public Policy Polling firm taken the night before Dodd's announcement showed Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal more than 30 percentage points ahead of the three announced Republican Senate candidates, all of whom had all been polling ahead of Dodd. In Colorado, Democrats point to Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar as strong alternatives to Ritter.

Democrats insist their policies will be more popular across the country once they're implemented and say they would welcome a national referendum on President Obama's record in 2010, which Republicans have vowed to make the centerpiece of their campaigns.

"The president is going to be able to go into 2010 offering an agenda that's produced results and Republicans are going to have to defend their obstructionism," said the DNC's Seguven. "If that's how they want to frame it -- with what they've done at a national level and what we've done at a national level -- we're going to welcome that."

Gallup's Newport cautioned that while the trend lines do favor Republicans, the real fervor among the public is a historic level of mistrust of incumbents. "There's a perception that people are bumbling around in Washington and not getting things done," he said. "Your best positioning as a candidate is to say, 'I'm new, I'm fresh, throw the bums out.'"

Newport added, "This has nothing to do with partisanship. It indicates that it's a good time to be challenging an incumbent . . . as perhaps Chris Dodd and Byron Dorgan understood."