Could the Democrats Lose Ted Kennedy's Seat?

On the heels of Rasmussen Reports poll showing Democrat Martha Coakley, the state's Attorney General, only 9 points ahead of Republican state Sen. Scott Brown in the race to fill the seat vacated by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 7-9 is showing Brown in a statistical dead heat with Coakley, leading her 48 percent to 47 percent with 6 percent undecided.

One of the reasons for this result is that special elections -- and this one will be held Jan. 19 -- have low turnouts, and balancing out the big Democratic advantage in this state is the fact that 66 percent of Republicans describe themselves as "very excited" about the race compared to 48 percent of Democrats. Democrats make up 44 percent of the poll's sample compared to 17 percent for the Republicans. Voters who describe themselves as independents ( who make up 39 percent of the sample) favor Brown over Coakley by 2-to-1.

"The Massachusetts Senate race is shaping up as a potential disaster for Democrats," said PPP's Dean Debnam "Martha Coakley's complacentcampaign has put Scott Brown in a surprisingly strong position and she will need to step it up in the final week to win a victory once thought inevitable."