Handicapping the Colorado Governor's Race

No sooner had Colorado GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams blogged about the negatives of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar as a Democratic gubernatorial candidate than Salazar removed himself from consideration.

Salazar's endorsement of Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper led Wadhams to quickly write another post, dubbing the new front-running Dem as "tax hike Hick."

But Hickenlooper's entry into the race isn't a certainty. Four years ago, he opted out of challenging Bill Ritter for the Democratic nomination in the same race. Now that Ritter won't run for a second term, citing family concerns, Hickenlooper is on the decision-making hot seat.

Hickenlooper isn't the only Democratic possibility however. And though former Congressman Scott McInnis is considered the GOP frontrunner in the governor's race, he faces a primary challenge from businessman Dan Maes.

Here's a look at the pros and cons for the potential successors to Ritter:

Democrats

Hickenlooper's positives: He comes closest to McInnis in a Rasmussen flash poll earlier this week. He's a popular mayor who isn't easily pigeonholed. The business community digs him, and his Facebook fan page is filled (for the most part) with encouragement to run for governor. On Friday, President Obama rang up the mayor's cell to encourage a run. Former state Rep. Rob Witwer warned his GOP colleagues to take the mayor seriously in this post Thursday at The Corner. Although Hickenlooper, a geologist turned brewpub owner, had never run for office, his 2003 mayoral campaign was both humorous and effective. His TV ads included spots in which he disparaged parking meter rates and dressed up in various outfits ("Now, I'm running for mayor. Everybody says I need better clothes.") In 2005, he went skydiving in an ad for a pair of financial ballot initiatives. He raised beaucoup bucks to bring the 2008 Democratic National Convention to Denver, so he's got fundraising and national party cred.

Hickenlooper's potential negatives: The mayor's wife, Helen Thorpe, a freelance journalist and book author, may not be wild about a statewide run. The couple has a young son. Sure to be a campaign issue: In 2005, an illegal immigrant dishwasher who worked at one of Hickenlooper's restaurants killed an off-duty Denver police officer. And can Hickenlooper appeal to independents and sway some GOP voters outside the Denver metro area?

State Treasurer Cary Kennedy's positives: Her first campaign win was a competitive, statewide race against a relatively well-funded and popular GOP opponent in 2006. Before that, she worked as a budget analyst in state government. She helped engineer passage of a K-12 funding initiative in 2000 and a budget compromise issue in 2005. She definitely knows campaigns, and she's been a visible, proactive treasurer.

Kennedy's potential negatives: Her name recognition probably isn't as good as that of McInnis. The last Democratic woman to run for governor, Gail Schoettler, narrowly lost to Republican Bill Owens in 1998.

Former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff: He's currently challenging appointed U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet in the Democratic primary, but might switch to the guv's race if circumstances shake out the right way. He's popular among the party's grassroots progressives and likely would have more support in this race.

Romanoff's potential negatives: His challenge of Bennet may have ticked off some Dems. He's never run an individual race beyond Denver, though he was a key leader in the 2005 budget initiative (when Kennedy was his chief policy aide in the state House).

Another possibility, U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, took his name out of the running Monday. Instead, he'll defend his competitive suburban Denver congressional seat.

Totally out-there Democratic possibilities: Ambitious first-term U.S. Rep. Jared Polis may be fantasizing just a little about this race. First-term U.S. Sen. Mark Udall is likely happy where he is now. Would U.S. Rep. Betsy Markey consider a run, just two years after unseating four-term GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave? U.S. Rep. John Salazar appeared to be encouraging his brother to run earlier in the week. As a moderate from a competitive rural district, he could be a threat to McInnis.

Republicans

McInnis' positives: After abandoning (or being tossed from?) the 2008 U.S. Senate race, the field looks relatively clear for the Western Slope pol. His one-time primary challenger, state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, exited stage right in early November, and the GOP is putting up a united front (OK, with one exception). McInnis is leading in early polls, and he'll be quick to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Obama administration and Congress. As of last weekend, he's got an updated look (new hair color, lost the mustache). And fired-up Republicans will be willing to bankroll the heavy artillery ads for McInnis come the fall.

McInnis' potential negatives: Conservatives who favored Penry may not be happy settling for McInnis. Some may recall his sniping about 2008 Senate candidate Bob Schaffer, who lost to Udall. His spokesman's initial statement about Ritter's exit (they'd beaten the A team; bring on the B team) was considered by some, well, a bit impolitic. Opponents are quick to label him "McLobbyist." And the majority of the state's voters live along the Front Range, which includes Denver, not the western part of the state where McInnis lives.

Maes' positives: He's a businessman aiming for Tea Party appeal. He's persistent, in terms of refusing to go along with the party line of supporting McInnis.

Maes' potential negatives: Dan who?

Kicking themselves?
Romanoff and Penry have got to be, even if just a little bit, this week. Ritter's withdrawal would have made a GOP primary a more reasonable battle for Penry. And if Romanoff had only waited before challenging Bennet, well . . .

Sandra Fish is a journalism instructor at the University of Colorado who has covered state government and politics in Iowa, Florida and Colorado. She's worked for the Orlando Sentinel, the Florida Times-Union in Jacksonville, and the Camera in Boulder, Colo., as well as serving as founding journalism mentor for the Colorado Independent.