Polls Raise Question Mark About Whether Democrats Will Hold Kennedy Seat

The polls have been all over the place in the Massachusetts Senate race, but even with all the imponderables in what is expected to be a low-turnout special election on Jan. 19, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey adds to the Democrats' urgency in making a final push behind state Attorney General Martha Coakley.

Rasmussen's poll, conducted Jan. 11, has Coakley with a statistically insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, with 3 percent for independent candidate Joseph Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family) and 2 percent undecided. Rasmussen's last poll, conducted Jan. 4, had Coakley ahead by 9 points but didn't include Kennedy. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 7-9 had Coakley and Brown in a statistical tie, while a Boston Globe poll, conducted Jan. 2-6, had Coakley ahead by 15 points.

The Washington Post reports today that Brown has thrown "a major scare" into the Democratic establishment by being more competitive than expected thanks to the energy of conservative activists, a big infusion of campaign cash and a solid performance in his debate with Coakley.

There's been a lot of discussion among polling analysts about the dynamics of the race, and why it has produced the results it has in all of these surveys, but it's clear that these polls have caught the attention of Democratic strategists, who are concerned about the fate of the seat.

"All recent polls place Coakley right around the 50 percent mark and support for opposition candidates above 40 percent," Rasmussen said. "Turnout will be the key, and Brown's voters appear to be more energized."

Nate Silver writes on his FiveThirtyEight.com blog that "it's not just about turnout. The Rasmussen poll that just came out -- one which shows Coakley's lead shrinking from 9 to 2 points -- also shows Barack Obama with a 57 percent approval rating (versus 41 percent opposed) among likely voters, and the health care bill favored by 52 percent of likely voters (versus 46 percent opposed). . . . Although I sometimes have concerns about the tightness of Rasmussen's likely voter screens, the fact is that an electorate which gives a 57 percent approval rating to Barack Obama is one that they ought to be reasonably contented with on election day."

Check out the Boston Globe coverage of the race.

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