Obama Again in 2012? Mixed Results
Bruce Drake
Polls about who voters would choose if the 2012 presidential elections were held today may be fun to read for political enthusiasts, but they really don't tell us much because they are mostly a reflection about how people feel about President Obama right now, and many of these surveys test him against the Republican presidential candidates of 2008 and so can't tell us how Obama might do against someone who might emerge over the next few years.
A Fox News poll conducted Jan. 12-13 says that 47 percent of voters would probably or definitely choose someone else if Obama stood for re-election today, while 43 percent would definitely or probably support him again. Nine percent said it was too soon to say and 2 percent were undecided and the margin of error was 3 points. Independents, who many polls show have been souring on Obama since his election, would choose someone else by 44 percent to 32 percent with 22 percent saying it's too soon to say and 2 percent undecided. That's more negative than Obama's job approval rating in most current polls, though not by a whole lot.
But Obama prevails when the Fox poll tests him against specific Republicans.
Obama beats Mitt Romney 47 percent to 35 percent with 10 percent undecided, 5 percent preferring another choice and 3 percent who wouldn't vote.
He beats Sarah Palin 55 percent to 31 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else, 4 percent who wouldn't vote and 5 percent who are undecided. But that's not much of a surprise since every poll I have seen says that most Americans don't want to see her as president.
Obama also bests former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 53 percent to 29 percent, with 5 percent preferring someone else, 4 percent who wouldn't vote and 9 percent undecided.
Fox also tested Obama against an unnamed Tea Party candidate, and Obama led 48 percent to 23 percent with 5 percent preferring another choice, 5 percent who wouldn't vote and 18 percent who said "don't know." That percentage stood up with independents.
As far as who voters want to see win this year's congressional elections, the Fox poll was in line with most others, showing a close divide. Thirty-eight percent favored the Democrats, 37 percent the Republicans, ten percent backing neither and 15 percent undecided. The only recent national poll that had a different result was an Associated Press/GfK Roper survey that gave the Democrats the advantage by 49 percent to 37 percent.
But the Fox poll does conjure up one similarity to the Associated Press poll. In the AP survey, 47 percent said they would like to see someone else than their own current member of Congress be elected, while 43 percent would back their current representative.
In the Fox poll, voters split down the middle when asked if they thought it would be good or bad for the country if all current members of Congress were voted out of office, including their own representative. Forty-four percent said it would be bad, 43 percent said it would be good, 6 percent said it would make no difference and 6 percent were undecided.