Blanche Lincoln's Prospects for Re-Election Look Dim in Arkansas Senate Race

If four-term Republican Rep. John Boozman decided to jump in the race against Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln, as he has hinted, he would be leading her by a commanding 56 percent to 33 percent margin, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 29-31. Eleven percent are undecided.

Lincoln also trails GOP state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who is an announced candidate. Baker leads her 50 percent to 35 percent with 15 percent undecided.

Fifty-seven percent of voters say Lincoln should not run for re-election compared to 33 percent who support her for another term, with 10 percent undecided.

Rasmussen Reports also has a poll out Tuesday that was conducted Feb. 1, and its findings are similar. For Lincoln, Rasmussen says, "the opponents are interchangeable at this point in her bid for reelection in Arkansas. New polling in the state finds her stuck in the mid-30s against any of five Republican opponents."

In the PPP survey, Lincoln is on thin political ice with 62 percent of voters disapproving of her job performance compared to 27 percent who approve, with 11 percent undecided. The health care reform legislation has been a difficult issue for her to navigate given that 61 percent in the state oppose it compared to 30 percent who support it, with 9 percent undecided. Lincoln was one of the 60 votes that Democratic leaders had to have to move the bill to the Senate floor. Fifty-two percent of voters consider her too liberal.

PPP says Boozman's big lead likely has more to do with dislike of Lincoln than support for him since 43 percent have no opinion of him, either positive or negative.

PPP also tested Boozman against hypothetical alternatives to Lincoln with mixed results.

The best Democratic showing would be if first term Gov. Mike Beebe decided to pull a Charlie Crist and switch races. That contest is a statistical tie, with Boozman leading 44 percent to 43 percent with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.4 percent. Beebe won election in 2006 with 56 percent of the vote, and he is seen favorably by a 59 percent to 22 percent margin, with 19 percent undecided.

Five-term Democratic Rep. Mike Ross performs better than Lincoln, but Boozman still leads him 48 percent to 37 percent with 15 percent undecided.

Boozman has a big lead -- 51 percent to 36 percent, with 13 percent undecided -- over former general and short-lived presidential hopeful Wesley Clark, who was reported by Politico to be considering a House race in the state where he was raised.

Boozman also comfortably leads Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, by 53 percent to 30 percent with 17 percent undecided.

If Baker were to win the GOP nomination, he'd be tied with Ross at 39 percent each, with 22 percent undecided; behind Beebe by 46 percent to 38 percent with 15 percent undecided; ahead of Clark 45 percent to 39 percent with 16 percent undecided, and ahead of Halter, by 45 percent to 34 percent with 21 percent undecided.

"Democrats are going to have a pretty hard time holding onto this Senate seat with or without Blanche Lincoln," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "Her lack of popularity has a lot to do with her personally but it may have even more to do with the unpopularity of her national party within the state."

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