Following a series of elections where conservative activists, Tea Partiers, disgruntled independents and energized Republicans have shaken things up, a political neophyte in Texas is riding that same kind of wave and may affect the outcome of the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination.

Debra Medina, who was a former GOP county chairman and runs a medical billing business, has pulled within four points of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who, like Medina, is mounting a primary challenge to Gov. Rick Perry, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Feb. 4-7. (Read the Houston Chronicle's profile of Medina here.)

Perry still holds a big lead, running ahead of Hutchison by 39 percent to 28 percent, with Medina at 24 percent. The margin of error is 4.8 points.

This is the second poll that showed Medina gaining, probably at Hutchison's expense. Rasmussen Reports put support for Medina at 16 percent in a survey conducted Feb. 1, a four-point gain since the previous poll. Hutchison's numbers slipped by the same amount. Last November, Medina's support stood at 4 percent.

Medina made her gains in the PPP survey despite the fact that 51 percent didn't know enough about her to say whether they view her favorably or not. She is drawing her strength from the same kind of Libertarian base that rallied around Texas Rep. Ron Paul's presidential run, as well as the anti-establishment Tea Party movement.

The Houston Chronicle says Medina "has made herself a factor in the race. She could be a spoiler, pulling enough votes to deny Gov. Rick Perry the re-nomination. Or she could force Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison into an expensive runoff that could send a bruised nominee into a potentially tough battle against the probable Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White."

PPP finds Medina supporters split about who they would back as a second choice. Forty-three percent chose Perry, 39 percent picked Hutchison and 18 percent were undecided.

A Rasmussen poll conducted Feb. 1 had all three Republicans ahead of White, although Medina's lead was statistically insignificant.

"The big question for Debra Medina is whether there's enough unhappy voters out there for her to get into a runoff with Rick Perry," said PPP's Dean Debnam "That would rank up there with the results of the Massachusetts Senate election as an early shocker in the 2010 political season."

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