GOP Would Suffer if the Tea Party Movement Endorsed Other Candidates

If the Tea Party endorsed third party candidates for office in this year's congressional elections, 16 percent of registered voters say they would back them, while 45 percent would stick with the Democrats and 33 percent with the Republicans, according to a CNN/Opinion Resarch poll conducted Feb. 12-15.

That compares to how the Republicans fare on a generic congressional election if it's just a two party contest: the GOP are preferred by 47 percent to 45 percent for the Democrats with 6 percent choosing neither and 2 percent undecided.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said, ""If the Tea Party runs its own candidates for U.S. House, virtually every vote the Tea Party candidate gets would be siphoned from the GOP candidate, potentially allowing the Democrats to win in districts that they might have otherwise lost."

When CNN sampled those in the survey who had engaged in Tea Party activities, it found that 44 percent identified themselves as Republicans, 52 percent as independents and 4 percent as Democrats.

All this could be one reason that Sarah Palin, who was the star speaker at the Tea Party's first national convention recently, said Tuesday night that those in the movement should pick an existing party. "Because the Tea Party movement is not a party, and we have a two-party system, they're going to have to pick a party and run one or the other: 'R' or 'D'," she said.

Most voters are not high on the idea of a third party. Twenty-six percent would oppose a third party if, as Keating suggests, it might tip an election to a candidate with who they disagree on most issues that matter to them. Another 34 percent oppose a third party under any circumstances. Thirty-eight percent favor a third party even if it results in election of a candidate they don't like.

As in some other recent polls on the subject, a large number of voters -- 45 percent -- say they don't know enough about the Tea Party movement to decide whether they support or oppose it. Of those who do have an opinion, 35 percent strongly or moderately support it while 19 percent oppose it.

A very small number of voters say they have participated in any Tea Party activities. Two percent have given money to an organization associated with the movement, 5 percent have attended a Tea Party-related rally, and 7 percent say that in person, via e=mail or on the Internet, they have taken steps to support the Tea Party.

(For an analysis of the recent polls on the Tea Party, which have varied in the way they have shaped their questions on the subject, see Mark Blumenthal's column on the National Journal site. One of Mark's conclusions: "While relatively few know a lot about it, the movement has made a strong general impression.")

The poll sampled 124 respondents who said they had participated in some Tea Party-related activity and found them to mostly be men (60 percent), white (80 percent), rural (50 percent) and conservative (77 percent).

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