When conservatives gathered for CPAC in 2007, the annual confab for right-of-center activists had taken on the look and feel of a group therapy session. Republicans had been trounced in the midterm elections, President Bush's popularity had plummeted, and after six years of his big-spending "compassionate conservatism," nobody seemed to know what a conservative really was anymore.
Fast-forward to 2010, and conservatives seem to have gotten their mojo back, just in time for CPAC 2010, which runs from Thursday to Saturday in Washington, D.C. Energized by three statewide Republican victories and buoyed by a surge in conservative activity, the conference has even moved to a new venue to accommodate its swelling crowds.
"There's definitely a noticeable mood change," said Lisa De Pasquale, director of CPAC, comparing this year's gathering to those of years past.
De Pasquale also acknowledged the most significant development since last year's conference, namely the evolution of the Tea Party movement -- the vast, loosely affiliated network of conservative and libertarian activists who began to protest the policies of the Obama administration, many of whom will attend this year's CPAC.
"One of the reasons we've seen a 20 percent growth this year is that the Tea Party did bring in a lot of new people into politics," Pasquale explained. "Even with the economy being what it is, for our group to be over 20 percent is pretty amazing and the Tea Party is a big part of that."
The Conservative Political Action Conference is put on every year by the American Conservative Union, the organization founded by William F. Buckley Jr. after the 1964 defeat of Barry Goldwater. But the clear challenge for CPAC this year will be to channel the white-hot energy of its newcomers in ways that strengthen, rather than threaten, the house that Buckley built.
"CPAC is the activist conference. It is very deep in the world where conservatives debate what it means to be conservative," said John Avlon, who recently published
"Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America." "It's a terrible mistake to say that everybody at CPAC is a wingnut, because there's a difference between committed political activists and unhinged political activists, but that line can blur, and CPAC offers a view of where those fault lines are, deep inside the conservative movement."
Over the course of the next three days, activists will attend seminars on everything from how to use modern media, like Twitter and Facebook, to grow their coalitions to how to get a job on a local Republican campaign.
Attendees will also engage in an inordinate amount of discussion about "saving freedom," with round-table discussions titled "Saving Freedom From the Enemies of Our Values," "They Want to Shut Us Up; Saving Our Freedom and the First Amendment," and "Nullification and State Resistance to Federal Tyranny."
Among the list of speakers at the conference will be Dick Armey, Newt Gingrich and Ann Coulter, as well as congressional darlings of the conservative movement, like Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Michele Bachmann and Sen. Jim DeMint.
But CPAC's highest-profile speech will come from a man hardly known to the group last year -- namely Marco Rubio, the Senate candidate in Florida and Tea Party favorite who has surged past Gov. Charlie Crist in recent polls. Andrew Breitbart, the founder of BigGovernment.com, who has become a conservative hero since his
Web site helped nab ACORN activists in a sting operation.
And taking Rush Limbaugh's place as marquee speaker on Saturday night will be none other than Fox News' Glenn Beck, the founder of the 9/12 Project that inspired much of the Tea Party movement, who has already requested a chalk board for his presentation.
One of the new faces attending CPAC will be Ryan Hecker, 29, a lawyer from Houston who is a national coordinator for the Tea Party Patriots. Hecker has scheduled a press conference to unveil the
"Contract From America," a riff on Gingrich's Contract With America that helped the Republicans take over Congress in 1994. The Patriots' version has been crafted from thousands of suggestions about ways Washington should change, submitted online by grassroots activists.
Hecker said the Tea Party activists see CPAC as a way to advance their agenda, but not to join the larger movement in lockstep. "Tea Party people felt like they were not being heard in D.C.," he said. "I think CPAC offers the opportunity for individuals to meet and be heard and feel like they can be heard and make a difference. I think they're aligned."
The Contract From America should not be confused with the
Mount Vernon Statement, a sort of conservative purity pledge championed by Republican stalwarts DeMint and Ed Meese and signed by the likes of Tony Perkins and Brent Bozell. DeMint warned in an ominous Tweet this week, "If our leaders cannot agree to the Mount Vernon Statement, they are part of the problem and should be replaced."
Tea Party Patriots have derided the Mount Vernon Statement as a concept as old-fashioned as the faux parchment it's written on, and say the leaders of the group are the same "old lions" who let Washington spiral out of control under George W. Bush.
One of the old lions who support the Contract From America, however, is Gingrich, who has praised the effort in interviews. "I'm happy he supports the message of Tea Party Patriots," said Hecker. "The more the merrier who want to be a part of our group."
Beyond the battle of the purity pledges this year, the biggest headlines coming out of CPAC are always the results of their presidential straw poll, a completely unscientific snapshot of whom conservatives support for 2012.
John Avlon worked for Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign and describes CPAC as a "gauntlet" that GOP hopefuls must run. "Now it's the cattle call for Republican nominees who want to claim they're conservative, which is all of them." Avlon said.
No fewer than five men contemplating a presidential run, including Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum, will speak at CPAC to try to get an inside track on the results.
Avlon added that while the support of conservatives is essential, Republicans generally and presidential hopefuls specifically should be careful not to give up support from independents while they are trying to appeal to CPAC attendees.
"I'd say stand your ground. Be principled and don't pander," Avlon said. "Generally, it's all about preaching to the choir, but as the fringe blurs with the base, there's some real question about who is in the choir."
No matter who is in the choir, CPAC's De Pasquale said that conservatives' unifying purpose is more than straw polls and petitions.
"This year, there is a central goal," she said. "Every day we're getting closer to the fact that Republicans could take back Congress. There has to be something that stops the train of the Obama administration. At this point deadlock is our best friend."