Democrats Lead on Generic House Ballot, but GOP Has the 'Enthusiasm' Edge

While Democrats have a slight edge over Republicans when Americans are asked which party's congressional candidate they plan to support in this year's midterms, the GOP may have the real advantage at this point because those who identify with that party are looking ahead to the elections with far more enthusiasm, according to a Gallup poll of registered voters conducted March 1-7.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead 47 percent to 44 percent with 1 percent preferring another choice and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points. This basically comports with most similar polls by other major organizations in which one party is either slightly ahead of the other or both are essentially tied.

Independents favor the Republicans by 43 percent to 37 percent with 20 percent undecided.When asked their enthusiasm levels about voting in this year's congressional elections, 42 percent of Republicans were "very enthusiastic" with another 35 percent describing themselves as "somewhat enthusiastic." That compares to the Democrats among whom only 24 percent are very enthusiastic with another 30 percent being somewhat enthusiastic.

By age, the most enthusiastic group are those who are 50-to-64 years old where 39 percent are very enthusiastic, followed by those over 65 where 35 percent are in that category. Thirty-one percent of 30-to-49 year olds are very enthusiastic but only 20 percent of those in the 18-to-29 bracket describe themselves that way.

Gallup suggests that the enthusiasm finding could trump the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. "Because Republicans generally enjoy higher turnout than Democrats, the closeness of the race among registered voters could mean that Republicans would be at parity or holding a slight advantage if actual voting were to take place now...The potential impact of turnout and motivation come November is underscored by the finding that Republicans hold a significant enthusiasm advantage over Democrats at this juncture."

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