If Crist Went Democratic or Independent? He's Still Behind

The survey by Public Policy Polling released Tuesday showing former state House Speaker Marco Rubio trouncing Gov. Charlie Crist in the Republican primary for Senate naturally kicked off speculation about whether Crist would fare better running as a Democrat or an independent, but PPP says Crist would still lose to Rubio.

If Crist, having seen his stock among Republicans melt down, decided to run as an independent, Rubio would come out on top with 34 percent of the vote, Crist would come in second with 27 percent, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek would come in last at 25 percent, according to a PPP survey conducted March 5-8. Fourteen percent were undecided. The margin of error is 3.4 points.

In the three-way race, Crist would claim 32 percent of the Democratic vote while Meek would hold onto 47 percent. Crist would only keep 18 percent of his former Republican friends while Rubio would get 62 percent.
If Crist ran as a Democrat, Rubio would beat him 43 percent to 34 percent with 22 percent undecided. Crist would get 54 percent of the Democratic vote and 13 percent of the Republican vote, while Rubio would get 72 percent of the Republican vote and 21 percent of the Democratic vote.

Crist does better against Meek than Rubio. Crist outpolls Meek 46 percent to 33 percent with 22 percent undecided while Rubio leads Meek by 44 percent to 39 percent with 18 percent undecided.

"Charlie Crist's road to victory looks tough even if he does leave the Republican Party," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "Marco Rubio's rise has given Democrats a much better chance to win this race than if Crist was still the GOP frontrunner."

Polling analyst Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com mused about four options Crist might have: continue to run for Senate as a Republican, (probability of success: quite low); run as an independent, (probability of success: decent); run for re-election as governor, (probability of success: fairly low), and give up and work on his tan, (probability of success: you can't lose!).

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