Democrat's Murray Would Face Close Race if GOP's Dino Rossi Runs

The big question hanging over the Senate race in Washington state, where Democrat Patty Murray is seeking a fourth term, is whether Republican Dino Rossi, who lost the closest governor's race in U.S. history decides to jump in.

A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted March 9 shows Murray ahead of three Republican candidates but trailing Rossi, who has said he is considering the race, by 3 points (the margin of error is 4.5 points).

Murray is viewed favorably by more than half the state's voters but she falls short (though not by much) of the 50 percent mark against all of them. Rasmussen generally says that an incumbent who is under 50 percent is potentially vulnerable, but for another view, you might check out polling guru Nate Silver's analysis. One of his findings in looking at the gubernatorial and Senate contests for 2006, 2008 and 2009 was that "19 of the 30 incumbents to have less than 50 percent of the vote in the early polling average in fact won their election."
Rossi leads Murray 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent preferring another candidate and 2 percent undecided.

Murray leads state Sen. Don Benton 48 percent to 37 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 12 percent undecided.

She leads former NFL tight end Clint Didier, who has become involved in the Tea Party movement, 49 percent to 30 percent with 6 percent preferring someone else and 15 percent undecided.

She leads Chris Widener, founder of the personal development company Made for Success, by 47 percent to 32 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 16 percent undecided.

At this juncture, Rossi gets a higher level of support (88 percent) among fellow Republicans in a race against Murray than the annoucned candidates. Benton gets 77 percent, Didier gets 68 percent and Widener gets 69 percent.

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