As the Auto Industry Sputters, Is Car Culture Dying?

Several trends point to the beginning of the end of car culture in the United States. But are Americans seriously ready to embrace alternatives to automobiles?

It's been a bad few years for cars in America. First, there was the auto industry bailout to the tune of $110 billion. Then, two of the three big carmakers -- GM and Chrysler -- went through bankruptcy. Finally, just when we thought that the future lay in turning Japanese, even the beloved Prius went off the road (literally) and Toyota has recalled nearly 9 million of its vehicles in the last few months.

Car sales are down too. They fell 21.2 percent from 2008 and the total sales volume was the lowest since 1982. More interestingly still: For the first time since World War II, more cars were scrapped (14 million) than were sold (10 million), according to the Earth Policy Institute.

The economy's to blame for much of that, but in a true sign of the times, on Wednesday Google incorporated intelligent biking routes into its popular Google Maps program.

And if you believe all that global warming stuff, well, cars are just bad news.

With all of these trends afoot, pundits are beginning to declare the end of America's romance with cars. Maybe so. But is the government on board in encouraging alternative forms of transportation? And even if it is, when the pedal hits the metal (so to speak), will Americans ultimately embrace them?

Some new public policies point in this direction. As I wrote several months back, the Obama administration has embraced high-speed rail for the United States (though not on the scope of what one finds in Europe), an initiative that enjoys broad bipartisan support.

Just last month, San Francisco adopted building codes requiring all new homes and offices to be wired for electric car chargers. While not a rejection of automobiles per se, it's certainly a bold step towards a new kind of car culture. (Though it's hard to say that San Francisco represents America. Sigh.)

And New Yorkers, at least, are embracing cycling like never before. The number of bike riders in Manhattan rose by 35 percent between 2007 and 2008. Nationally, auto-sharing companies like Zip Car are also on the rise. Between May 2008 and May 2009, Zip Car increased its membership by a third, from 200,000 to 300,000. (That's a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things, but it's a start.)

Still, much like America's cultural attachment to owning over renting homes, there's a sense that Americans view cars as the very embodiment of freedom and, hence, national identity. And that's really hard to shake. The failed attempt by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to impose a London-style congestion charge in Manhattan is a case in point. Some are also predicting that once the recession ends, car purchases will resume their pride of place in American society and more people will return to driving.

But that doesn't mean there's no hope for those -- like me -- who would like to see America become less reliant on cars. But it would require more than just the odd high-speed rail line in Florida. One environmental advocate here in London has suggested that governments can be as cycle-friendly as they like, but citizens' behavior will never change so long as the money spent on advertising for cars vastly outpaces that spent on alternatives. His vote? Governments should limit car advertising, as they did with alcohol and tobacco when the health impacts of those products were recognized.

It's a pretty far-fetched solution. And it really doesn't sound very American. But as someone who is actually rather fond of the Nanny State, I'm not sure it's all that crazy.

How about you?

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