Democrats' Dilemma: Health Care Vote and the 'Enthusiasm Gap'

As health care legislation moves toward the finish line (we've heard that before), Americans are split on whether it is better or not to pass a bill and how much of a difference it would make to them in the midterm elections on how their representatives voted, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted March 11, 13 and 14. (For the Wall Street Journal story, go here).

Republicans seem increasingly confident that the substance of the legislation and the way Democratic leaders are trying to push it through will be a disaster for their rivals at the polls this November. The quandary for Democrats is that failure to enact the reform proposal may exacerbate the "enthusiasm gap" between the parties by discouraging their core supporters.

Forty-six percent of Americans believe it would be better not to pass the health care overhaul while 45 percent support passage, with 5 percent undecided. That compares to 44 percent who believed it better not to approve the legislation and 41 percent who supported passage in December.

Forty-eight percent say the plan backed by President Obama is a bad idea, 36 percent call it a good idea, and 15 percent are undecided. In January, 46 percent called it a bad idea and 31 percent called it a good idea, with 22 percent undecided.

That said, many Americans appear to want some kind of health care overhaul if the legislation now on Capitol Hill goes down to defeat. Forty-seven percent said Congress should try again immediately, 23 percent said "sometime in the next two years," 15 percent said after the next election, and 13 percent said "never."

When respondents were asked if it was more or less likely that they would vote for their representative if he or she sided with Republicans against passage, 34 percent said they would be less likely to do so, 31 percent said they would be more likely, and 34 percent said it would make no difference.

Asked if they knew their representative would vote for passage of the Democrats' bill, 36 percent said it would be less likely, 28 percent said more likely, and 36 percent said it would make no difference.

Thirty-seven percent said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who would propose repealing the bill if passed, while 33 percent said it would be less likely, and 29 percent said it would make no difference.

Where the quandary comes in for Democrats is that the survey found 67 percent of Republican respondents said they were very interested in the November elections compared to 46 percent of Democrats.

Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the poll with Republican Bill McInturff, said, "If the Democrats are going to close that gap, they've got to get their people excited. And I don't see how you get those people if you vote no" on the party's health care legislation.

Of course, congressional districts are not all equal. The Republicans may be right about the impact of the health care vote in some districts, while the "enthusiasm factor" might be more important to Democrats in others.

Apart from the health care issue, the poll found Americans sick of Congress, sick of the economic doldrums, and sick about the direction the country is headed.

They said by 59 percent to 33 percent that the country was headed on the wrong track.

They disapprove of the job Congress is doing by 77 percent to 16 percent, up from 67 percent to 21 percent in January.

Fifty-four percent blame both parties for unwillingness to compromise on a health care bill.

Although the results are always different when people are asked about their own lawmaker, the poll found that, generically, 50 percent would vote to replace every member of Congress if they had that choice on the ballot while 47 percent would not.

The difference between the generic question and the results when asked about someone's own representative are illustrated by these findings in the poll:

Asked their feelings about Congress in general, 37 percent said that lawmakers are only interested in staying in office, 28 percent said they were too close to special interest groups, 19 percent said they were too partisan, and 16 percent said they pursued pork barrel projects that waste taxpayer money.

When asked about their own representatives, 23 percent said their main interests were staying in office, 13 percent said they were working to get things done for their constituents, 10 percent said they were too partisan and only 5 percent said they were too focused on pork-barrel spending.

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