GOP's Burr Holding Lead in N.C. Senate Race For Now

North Carolina's Republican senator, Richard Burr, leads all the Democratic candidates running for his job, benefiting from the fact that the Democrats have yet to choose a candidate from a field of unknowns, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted March 12-15.

Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by 41 percent to 36 percent, with 23 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.3 points. A PPP poll conducted during this same period said Marshall was leading the Democratic pack for the party's nomination, although at this point in that campaign, the percentage of "undecided" tops Marshall by more than 2-1.

Burr leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham by 43 percent to 32 percent, with 25 percent undecided. He leads lawyer and Democratic fundraiser Kenneth Lewis by identical numbers to Cunningham.


When voters were asked their preference when Burr was matched against an unnamed Democrat, the result was a statistical tie, with Burr leading by 41 percent to 39 percent, with 20 percent undecided.

Among independents, Burr leads all the Democrats by margins ranging from 16 to 20 points, although in each case, about 4 in 10 of independents are undecided. He also has far higher support among fellow Republicans than the three Democrats do in their own party, but that gap is likely to close once a nominee is chosen.

Burr holds his leads even though only 35 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing. Thirty-seven percent disapprove and 28 percent are not sure.

The problem for the Democrats is that they are pretty much an unknown lot. Seventy-one percent did not know enough about Marshall to have an opinion of her, while the numbers for Cunningham and Lewis were 86 percent and 85 percent, respectively.

"So far this race is mirroring the 2008 Senate contest in North Carolina," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "We have an incumbent with weak approval ratings and a Democratic field full of unknowns, allowing the incumbent to hold a solid early lead. Whether Richard Burr will meet the same fate as Elizabeth Dole once the Democrats have a candidate remains to be seen."

The Democratic primary is May 4.

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