Tea Party Turnout, Grassroots Dems Challenge Colorado Frontrunners

Two well-funded U.S. Senate candidates -- including the incumbent -- learned just how dissatisfied voters are at Colorado caucuses Tuesday.

Democratic challenger Andrew Romanoff defeated incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet, 51 percent to 42 percent, in a straw poll of caucus attendees, with 2,988 of 3,247 precincts reporting late Tuesday.

On the Republican side, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck ran neck and neck. With 94 percent of precincts reporting, both had about 38 percent of the caucus vote.
What does it mean? Fundraising frontrunners Norton and Bennet may face stiff challenges in the state's Aug. 10 primaries at this point -- but their ability to get ads on television this summer gives them an advantage. Meanwhile, the showings by Romanoff and Buck give them a chance to show the money people some new-found credibility.

Tuesday's precinct caucuses are just the first step toward the primary. To get on the ballot, Senate and gubernatorial candidates need to land at least 30 percent of the delegates at their party's state assemblies, to be held in May.

If the numbers for the four top Senate candidates hold at the assembly, all will be on the ballot. Former state Sen. Tom Wiens saw his GOP hopes dim with only 16 percent of the vote, after investing more than $600,000 in his campaign.

But a caucus poll win doesn't guarantee assembly victory. Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar defeated his challenger at the 2004 caucuses, but lost the state assembly vote -- and thus "top line" on the ballot. Despite not being listed first, Salazar still won the primary with 73 percent of the vote, and went on to win a close contest in the general election.

Colorado candidates don't have to go the caucus route to get on the ballot. Democratic Sen. Mark Udall petitioned his way onto the ballot in 1998 and won a three-way primary against candidates thought to have more grassroots support.

In separate news releases, Romanoff declared his victory a "shock wave," while the Bennet camp characterized their opponent's finish as falling short of expectations. Gov. Bill Ritter appointed Bennet to the seat in January 2009 when Salazar became Interior secretary. The appointment came as a surprise to many Democrats -- including Romanoff, who many said had hoped for the appointment.

A former state House speaker, Romanoff's strength is considered his grassroots support. He's attacked Bennet's acceptance of political action committee cash, but the two offer few differences on issues. Both are calling for reform of Senate rules and procedures, as well as action on health care reform.

On the Republican side, Buck is the Tea Party candidate of choice, picking up endorsements from Red State's Erik Erickson and other conservatives. Norton, on the other hand, is seen by many as handpicked by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, something that angers the Tea Party crowd.

In her statement Tuesday, Norton noted, "Caucuses are the starting gun in the marathon race to November."

If November's the marathon, August is the half-marathon. Cash will be key in July and early August, prime time for television, radio and mail advertising. Thus far, Norton and Bennet are clearly leading on the money front.

Norton went on the air last month, attacking President Obama when he came to Colorado to campaign for Bennet.

Wednesday, Bennet's first ad -- portraying him as a Washington reformer -- will hit the air.

Buck, Wiens and Romanoff each have YouTube channels, and Wiens aired radio ads starting last month.