Rank-and-File Dems' Support for Health Reform Grows Stronger as Vote Nears

As the health care reform battle nears its climax, the gap between the number of those who "strongly" oppose the measure has narrowed as rank-and-file Democrats appear to be rallying around the proposal, according to a Kaiser Health Tracking Poll conducted March 10-15.

Overall, a plurality supports the measure, with 46 percent in favor, 42 percent against and 12 percent undecided. "Strong" opponents outnumber "strong" supporters 33 percent to 28 percent, but that is a significantly closer margin than January, when it was 31 percent to 19 percent.

Among Democrats alone, the level of "strong" support has risen from 30 percent in January to 52 percent. That result may give some credence to the belief of some political analysts that it's necessary for the White House and Democratic congressional leaders to make good on their promises to push through health care reform if they hope to keep the party base energized in the midterm elections.

There was little change in Republican sentiment, with 66 percent "strongly" opposed compared to 62 percent in January.

Forty-two percent of those surveyed say Congress has debated the issue long enough and want a vote, as is planned for Sunday, while 36 percent said that work on legislation should continue but that lawmakers need to go back to the drawing board. Twenty percent say Congress should stop talking about health care reform and move on to other subjects.

Seventy-three percent say the bitter and drawn-out process to get to this point on health care is proof that the policy-making process in Washington is broken. That view is held across party lines. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats, and 77 percent each of Republicans and independents believe the process is broken.

The poll also asked respondents to judge the personal impact on them and their families under two scenarios: if health care reform passed or if it didn't. The areas sampled were the ability to get and keep health insurance, cost of health care and quality of health care.

More than half of those surveyed said the quality of care and the ability to get and keep insurance would remain about the same even if the legislation failed. But 48 percent said costs would grow if the legislation was not enacted.

Here are all the responses:

- Thirty-six percent believe their ability to get and keep health insurance will stay about the same if the legislation passes, while 35 percent say things will improve and 22 percent predict they will get worse. If health reform fails to pass, 54 percent say things will stay about the same, 32 percent say they will get worse and 10 percent say they will get better.

- If health care reform passes, 32 percent say health care costs for their families will get worse, 31 percent say they will get better and 29 percent say costs will remain the same. If it doesn't pass, 48 percent believe costs will get worse, 40 percent say they will be about the same and 8 percent say the cost situation will improve.

- If health care reform passes, 36 percent believe the quality of their care will remain the same, 29 percent say it will get worse and 28 percent say it will get better. If the reform effort fails, 56 percent believe the quality of their care will remain the same while 31 percent say it will get worse and 10 percent say it will improve.

On the cost issues, 52 percent say the amount they pay for their family's health care and coverage has gone up over the past year (with 26 percent saying costs have gone up "a lot") while 40 percent say they have stayed the same and 3 percent say they have gone down.