Can the Health Care Debate Be Ending? What's Next for Washington's Players?
David Corn
Columnist
Posted:
03/20/10
Is it possible, really possible, that one day--maybe even soon--all this will be over? By "all this," I mean the political fight-to-the-death over health care reform. As of Saturday morning, it looked as if the all-important vote in the House would still happen on Sunday afternoon and that the House Dems and the White House had a good shot at bagging the necessary 216 votes. Yes, there will have to be a vote in the Senate, but at the moment that appears less problematic. Which means we could be reaching the light at the end of the very long health care reform tunnel. Certainly, the rhetorical debate will continue, with GOPers repeating their denouncement of the legislation as a big-government takeover of health care system and vowing to repeal the package if they gain control Congress. But there's no telling whether they can actually sustain the fight after a bill is passed and voters see some of the immediate benefits (curbing insurance abuses, filling the so-called Medicare prescription drug "donut hole," providing tax credits for small business owners who purchase health insurance for their employees, and more.) So might Washington and the politerati be about to move on? And what will the near-future hold for some of its players? Here are a few prognostications.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: The right has been pillorying her for years, and while she may not always be the most effective spokesperson for her party, she is known among House Democrats as a skilled vote-counter. Passing the health care bill by any margin will bolster her congressional street cred--and allow her to focus on a chief priority of House Dems: getting reelected in November and maintaining majority status. It's been decades since there's been a congressional election following an extended stretch of such severe unemployment. The wind is against the Democrats because they are the incumbents and angry voters tend to direct their wrath at the folks in power. Consequently, expect Pelosi to push a three-part agenda: jobs, jobs, and jobs. Whenever she can bring any legislation to a vote that can be described in any manner using the j-word, she will. There's not much House Democrats can do to counter anti-incumbent fever, but if they can repeatedly boast of voting for one jobs bill after another...well, at least that won't hurt them.
President Barack Obama. There is the rest of his presidency. Two of his initiatives will be difficult to push ahead this year: cap-and-trade climate change legislation and immigration reform. The former is stalled in the Senate, where it may transform into an energy bill that combines clean energy initiatives with subsidies for Big Energy. But it's not likely to be a comprehensive measure addressing climate change. And it will be tough for him to achieve substantial progress on immigration reform, after a late start in an election year. (Senator Lindsey Graham, a potential White House partner on immigration reform, has said that the health care reform fight could end up ticking off Republican legislators to such an extent that they won't work with the administration on immigration.) This leaves Obama with financial regulation reform. The House last fall passed a strong bill that's close to Obama's own proposals. But now the Big Finance lobbyists are poised for a major clash in the Senate, and one major front is a provision to set up an independent consumer financial watchdog that could write and enforce rules governing financial products, such as credit cards and mortgages. The banks hate this--which offers the president one big opening. Obama could show he shares Americans' anger at Wall Street by slamming Big Finance and its influence-peddlers. Like Pelosi, he'll be talking jobs, jobs, and jobs in the coming months. But whatever he does is not likely to lead to an immediate economic turn-around. If he laces his I'm-working-hard-for-jobs rhetoric with some good old-fashioned anti-Wall Street populism (which, after all, is well justified), he could bolster his own political standing, which will help him when he campaigns for congressional Democrats.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Once the health care reform saga is over, he'll be able to concentrate fully on one job: saving his own. He faces an unexpectedly tough reelection fight in Nevada. (As a congressional leader, he's a super-incumbent.) He'll be scoring more frequent flyer miles than usual, hopping back and forth between Washington and the Silver State and doing whatever he can to make whatever legislation is working its way through the Senate a little bit sweeter for his home state. Call him the Delivery Man.
House Minority Leader John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. If they end up losing on health care reform, they'll try to turn defeat into a badge of honor and depict their party as a bulwark against Bolshevikism that was only vanquished due to the procedural chicanery of the rules-bending Democrats. But they run the risk of looking like the guy who keeps complaining about the referee after the game is done. What they should do--and won't--is be quiet for the next seven months. That anti-incumbent wave (maybe a tidal wave?) will do a lot for GOPers. But they can really ruin it by acting like GOPers--that is, coming across as cranky, just-say-no obstructionists and advocating tax cuts for the rich and tax hikes for the rest of us. Finding a nice cave would be a good electoral strategy. Instead, bet on the Republicans to make outrageous claims about whatever the Democrats and Obama try and to diminish their own electoral propsects.
Sarah Palin. Keep an eye on her Facebook page. She'll soon be decrying the Obama administration's plan to establish a federal climate change police force that will have the power to enter your home and assess your energy use. Too many lights on? Fines and re-education camps.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: The right has been pillorying her for years, and while she may not always be the most effective spokesperson for her party, she is known among House Democrats as a skilled vote-counter. Passing the health care bill by any margin will bolster her congressional street cred--and allow her to focus on a chief priority of House Dems: getting reelected in November and maintaining majority status. It's been decades since there's been a congressional election following an extended stretch of such severe unemployment. The wind is against the Democrats because they are the incumbents and angry voters tend to direct their wrath at the folks in power. Consequently, expect Pelosi to push a three-part agenda: jobs, jobs, and jobs. Whenever she can bring any legislation to a vote that can be described in any manner using the j-word, she will. There's not much House Democrats can do to counter anti-incumbent fever, but if they can repeatedly boast of voting for one jobs bill after another...well, at least that won't hurt them.
President Barack Obama. There is the rest of his presidency. Two of his initiatives will be difficult to push ahead this year: cap-and-trade climate change legislation and immigration reform. The former is stalled in the Senate, where it may transform into an energy bill that combines clean energy initiatives with subsidies for Big Energy. But it's not likely to be a comprehensive measure addressing climate change. And it will be tough for him to achieve substantial progress on immigration reform, after a late start in an election year. (Senator Lindsey Graham, a potential White House partner on immigration reform, has said that the health care reform fight could end up ticking off Republican legislators to such an extent that they won't work with the administration on immigration.) This leaves Obama with financial regulation reform. The House last fall passed a strong bill that's close to Obama's own proposals. But now the Big Finance lobbyists are poised for a major clash in the Senate, and one major front is a provision to set up an independent consumer financial watchdog that could write and enforce rules governing financial products, such as credit cards and mortgages. The banks hate this--which offers the president one big opening. Obama could show he shares Americans' anger at Wall Street by slamming Big Finance and its influence-peddlers. Like Pelosi, he'll be talking jobs, jobs, and jobs in the coming months. But whatever he does is not likely to lead to an immediate economic turn-around. If he laces his I'm-working-hard-for-jobs rhetoric with some good old-fashioned anti-Wall Street populism (which, after all, is well justified), he could bolster his own political standing, which will help him when he campaigns for congressional Democrats.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Once the health care reform saga is over, he'll be able to concentrate fully on one job: saving his own. He faces an unexpectedly tough reelection fight in Nevada. (As a congressional leader, he's a super-incumbent.) He'll be scoring more frequent flyer miles than usual, hopping back and forth between Washington and the Silver State and doing whatever he can to make whatever legislation is working its way through the Senate a little bit sweeter for his home state. Call him the Delivery Man.
House Minority Leader John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. If they end up losing on health care reform, they'll try to turn defeat into a badge of honor and depict their party as a bulwark against Bolshevikism that was only vanquished due to the procedural chicanery of the rules-bending Democrats. But they run the risk of looking like the guy who keeps complaining about the referee after the game is done. What they should do--and won't--is be quiet for the next seven months. That anti-incumbent wave (maybe a tidal wave?) will do a lot for GOPers. But they can really ruin it by acting like GOPers--that is, coming across as cranky, just-say-no obstructionists and advocating tax cuts for the rich and tax hikes for the rest of us. Finding a nice cave would be a good electoral strategy. Instead, bet on the Republicans to make outrageous claims about whatever the Democrats and Obama try and to diminish their own electoral propsects.
Sarah Palin. Keep an eye on her Facebook page. She'll soon be decrying the Obama administration's plan to establish a federal climate change police force that will have the power to enter your home and assess your energy use. Too many lights on? Fines and re-education camps.