The Tea Party Movement: 'Nightmare' or 'Dream' for the Republicans?

Although almost half of voters don't know enough about the Tea Party movement to have an opinion of it, Tea Party candidates -- if they were to jump into congressional races -- would draw enough support from Republicans to tip the balance to Democrats, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 16-21.

On a generic congressional ballot, 44 percent of respondents say they would vote for the Republican over a Democrat for Congress if the elections were held today, with 16 percent undecided. Independents would side with the Republicans by 54 percent to 27 percent with 25 percent undecided, and 82 percent of those who say they are involved with the Tea Party movement would side with the GOP. (CNN/Opinion Research's result on the generic ballot, based on a poll conducted March 19-21, had Republicans and Democrats tied at 46 percent each).

But if a Tea Party candidate made it a three-way race, the Democrat would come out on top by 36 percent to 25 percent over the Republican, with 15 percent for the Tea Party standard bearer and 22 percent undecided. Independents would divide evenly among the three parties, although a third said they are undecided. Thirty-two percent of Tea Partiers would stick with the Republican but 36 percent would back the movement's candidate, with another 27 percent undecided.

"The Tea Party could be a Republican dream -- or a GOP nightmare," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. "Members could be a boon to the GOP if they are energized to support Republican candidates. But if the Tea Party were to run its own candidates for office, any votes its candidate received would to a very great extent be coming from the GOP column."

Thirteen percent of those surveyed said they considered themselves part of the Tea Party movement. Brown said the movement is mostly made up of people who consider themselves to be Republican and that they are "less educated but more interested in politics than the average Joe and Jane Six-Pack and are not in a traditional sense swing voters."

Seventy percent of voters are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country (with 41 percent saying they are "very" dissatisfied), and that is spilling over into unhappiness with the two major political parties.

Forty-two percent have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party while 33 percent see it favorably, with 21 percent undecided. That, however, is an improvement over November, when the GOP was seen unfavorably by a 53 percent to 28 percent margin, with 16 percent undecided.

Forty-eight percent see the Democrats unfavorably while 33 percent have a positive view, with 17 percent undecided. That compares to a 46 percent to 39 percent unfavorable-to-favorable ratio in November.

Forty-nine percent haven't heard enough about the Tea Party movement to express a favorable or unfavorable opinion. Of those who did express a view, 28 percent see it favorably and 23 percent unfavorably.

Fifty-one percent have an unfavorable view of Sarah Palin while 33 percent see her favorably, with 14 percent saying they haven't heard enough about her to express an opinion. Seventy-two percent of Tea Partiers and 60 percent of Republicans see her favorably. Independents see her unfavorably by a 49 percent to 34 percent margin with 15 percent undecided, and nearly three-quarters of Democrats have a negative view.

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