Bill Halter Hopes 'Microtargeting' Will Topple Blanche Lincoln

When Lt. Gov. Bill Halter of Arkansas announced his plans to challenge incumbent U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln in the coming Democratic primary, the liberal blogosphere exploded with giddiness. It turns out that the Democratic Party's left wing has the same impulses toward party purity as the Republican Party's right wing.



In reality, campaigns have always employed some measure of "targeting," which essentially means concentrating time, talent, and treasure on certain voters while ignoring others. It may seem undemocratic to the politically uninitiated, but smart campaigns, regardless of their political ideology, realize that some voters are simply worth more time than others. Sending Walter Mondale-for-President volunteers to ring on the doorbell of a house festooned with "Reagan/Bush 1984" signs, for example, is not the best use of finite resources.

In the 1970s and '80s, Matt Reese took that concept to a new level, combining new computer technology with polling and demographic data to create a more sophisticated targeting mechanism for Democrats. In 2004, the Bush campaign took this principle even further – and probably carried Ohio and Florida because of it. The "targeted" voter was a Republican "persuadable" who lived in a Democratic precinct or neighborhood unlikely to see a Bush-Cheney billboard or get a knock on the door from a Republican canvasser. But they had mailboxes, and they had phones, and they had computers, and Rove's team made sure that these potential "red" voters who lived in "blue" neighborhoods got letters, phone calls, and e-mails with a message tailored to their concerns.

Democrat-turned-Bush operative Brian Lunde, who worked these fields, called it "the quiet campaign." Its clientele could be a man living in a liberal urban area who subscribed to a hunting and fishing magazine, an African-American parent disillusioned with the Democrats' opposition to school vouchers, a practicing Roman Catholic who saw eye-to-eye with Democrats on financial but not social issues.

There's nothing quiet about it anymore – and Democrats have rejoined the fray. Halter has tapped a political consultancy, Changing Targets Media, that specializes in identifying voters down to the household level, and turning them out to the polls.

"The Halter campaign is smart to do this," said Brent E. McGoldrick, a microtargeting expert who works for Financial Dynamics, a business and financial communications company. "And the Lincoln campaign would be wise to [do] something similar." McGoldrick, who has developed microtargeting and market segmentation business for political campaigns and corporate and public affairs clients, added, "This is exactly the kind of race where a campaign needs microtargeting."

In Arkansas, voters don't register their party affiliation, which makes microtargeting both more difficult and potentially more rewarding. Moreover, campaigns typically look to past election data as a model for what to expect, but the high-profile nature of this race means past voter turnout numbers offer limited guidance.

"That makes turnout hard to predict," McGoldrick said. "In that context, how does a campaign identify the true liberals and the conservative Democrats? Microtargeting helps answer of all these unknowns."

I spoke with Amy Gershkoff, managing partner of Changing Targets Media, about that. She boasts a doctorate in political methodology from Princeton University and experience working for MSHC Partners; a Democratic firm founded by Hal Malchow. (Malchow is a respected Democratic operative who managed Al Gore's first Senate campaign. He is considered a pioneer in persuasion mail marketing. In fact, his 2003 book, "The New Political Targeting" focuses on "the application of statistical modeling and data mining techniques in the political arena").

Gershkoff was hesitant to reveal too much inside information about the technology she will be employing in Arkansas, but it appears that her firm focuses more on creatively targeted media placements than with other tactics, like mail, phones, or door-to-door efforts. Gershkoff has patent-pending proprietary software that slices and dices audiences in ways that would make the old 2004 Rove team envious.

They'll need all that expertise if they are to oust a sitting U.S. senator. "Running against incumbents," Gershkoff offered, "you have to think smarter and be more creative."