Florida Senate Race: Charlie Crist Needs a Hug

I'd like to give Charlie Crist a hug.

I'm not in the habit of embracing Republicans -- or any politicians. And a cuddle from me probably wouldn't help Crist, the governor of Florida who is in a mighty tough political fight -- precisely because of a hug. But this guy could use a good, supportive squeeze.

If you don't follow politics, here's the back story. Not too long ago, Crist was the popular chief executive of the Sunshine State, a Republican with a reputation for competence and moderation. In 2008, he was talked about as a possible running mate for John McCain (who ended up going in a different direction). And after the 2008 campaign, with the GOP leadership in Washington seemingly in tatters, Crist was hailed as one of the no-nonsense Republican governors who could lead their party back from electoral wilderness.

Then came the hug.

In February 2009, President Barack Obama traveled to Florida, and Crist didn't just receive the new president, he literally wrapped his arms around him.

Fire-breathing Republicans were not happy about this. But with economic crisis at hand, Crist was supporting Obama's $787 billion stimulus package, of which Florida would receive several tens of billions of dollars in assistance. At the time, that cheek-to-cheek embrace probably went over well with Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans who were eager for those federal bucks and hopeful about the new president.

Enter the Tea Party. As conservative opposition to Obama mounted in Florida and elsewhere, the hug became a sign of treason. Crist, who last year began running for Senate (as a possible stepping stone to a presidential bid), found himself in hot water with his party's increasingly angry base. Meanwhile, former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, who had dared to challenge Crist for the GOP senatorial nomination, became a Tea Party darling. Crist, once ahead by 30 points, free-fell to 20 points behind Rubio. He's dead man walking -- on a good day.

No one seems to think he can win -- even though the primary is not until August. On Tuesday night, Republican consultant Steve Schmidt said Crist has "zero chance" of beating Rubio. Crist may share that view, for he's been flirting with the idea of staying in the Senate race as an independent. (One unconfirmed report based on anonymous sources says Crist has made up his mind to go indie.)

Anyone gripped by the fascinating Tea Party vs. Moderate Republicans narrative would probably cheer a three-way contest for the Florida Senate seat. But that's not why I want to give Crist a hug.

In February, he and other governors attended a White House meeting with Obama. After the session, they came to the media stake-out spot in front of the West Wing. Over the previous days, Republicans in Washington had claimed that Obama's stimulus had created no new jobs (even though economists had estimated the recovery package had saved at least 2 million jobs.) So I asked Crist if these GOPers were presenting an accurate assessment. Not at all, he said, noting that the stimulus legislation had "created or maintained 87,000 jobs" in Florida. He maintained that Obama's stimulus had been "important" and "necessary." He dismissed his fellow GOPers' gripes about the stimulus as the product of a "political year."

When another reporter asked if he had any regrets about accepting the money, Crist, without pausing, said, "I don't apologize for it all." What about Rubio denouncing him for embracing Obama and the stimulus? "He's wrong, and I'm right," Crist fired back.

Crist did not yield to the Tea Partiers one inch. He didn't try to cook up a phony excuse for his warm welcome of Obama. He didn't backpedal on the stimulus. ("Well, you know," he could have said, "I didn't like everything about it, I'm sure there was plenty of waste in the bill, and it was a hard decision, but I just couldn't say no to money that would help some Floridians at least a little.") No, he stood firm and slammed Rubio.

That was impressive. But it didn't help Crist. ("You don't always get a chance to help a politician self-immolate," one White House reporter said to me after that exchange.) He continued to drop in the polls, and prominent Republicans -- including Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani -- have rushed to endorse Rubio. The gravitational force of the Tea Party is too strong. Crist is being cast adrift. Ronald Reagan used to say, I didn't leave the Democratic Party; it left me. Well, the Republican Party of Florida is saying adios to Crist: hasta mañana.

But Crist may respond, hey, amigos, not so rapido. On Monday, he told The Associated Press that he is pondering quitting the GOP primary and running for the Senate as an independent. That would make him a pariah within the Republican establishment. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has warned Crist not to take this path. And John McCain, who has endorsed Crist, says he will un-endorse Crist if he leaves the party.

But if Crist trades his R for an I, that would scramble everything. Crist might do well in a three-person race -- especially since the Democrat in the election will be Rep. Kendrick Meek, who is not well known across the state. Then again, if Crist stays in as an indie, he and Rubio could split the Republican vote and provide Meek an opening. (Washington Democrats, who had practically given up on this contest, are now salivating at the prospect of an independent Crist run.) Crist has until April 30 to decide whether to go independent.

His choice is simple: accept being a victim of the Tea Party-ization of the GOP, or fight back. If Crist takes on the Tea Party wing, the Florida Senate contest could turn into something of a bigger version of last November's special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District, where a Democrat won after a Tea Party conservative chased a moderate Republican out of the contest. This is not a prediction of a Meek victory; it's a forecast of chaos. Poli sci graduate students, prepare your theses!

Charlie Crist's once-promising political career may be smothered because he accepted billions of dollars that saved and created jobs in his home state -- unless he rebels against the Tea Party takeover of the GOP. He still could end up a big loser. But if he remains in the GOP primary, such an outcome seems an especially good bet. And there may be more at stake in this melodrama than the future of one politician. An independent Crist bid would reveal how many moderate Republicans are left -- and whether there's enough for one big group hug.

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