Pennsylvania Special Election Could Signal Midterm Results

Republicans seem to have the wind at their backs nationally, but will it translate into a win in Pennsylvania to fill the seat left open by the death of Democrat John Murtha?

Mark Critz, a former Murtha aide, and Tim Burns, a Republican businessman, are competing for the job Murtha held from 1974, when he narrowly won a special election, until last February. Recent polls show the race is neck and neck. As is always the case with special elections, turnout is what matters, and it's hard to predict turnout in the 12^th Congressional District, where voters had been electing Murtha for decades.

If Burns wins, it would build on GOP victories in governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia in 2009, as well as in the race for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts this year, providing yet more momentum for Republicans seeking election in November. As Nathan Gonzales, a political editor of The Rothenberg Political Report told me, "Whichever party wins will trumpet the results as a bellwether for the fall. If Burns wins, Republicans will add it to their list of victories in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts and expect even bigger gains in November."

But winning the May 18 special election will be no small feat for the Republican. In many ways, Burns is the one swimming against the tide, at least for now. For one thing, Critz is not a Washington-based staffer who reluctantly moved back to run for the seat. He worked for Murtha in the district. The 12^th District encompasses a graying, conservative and blue-collar part of the state, and Critz is shrewdly seeking to portray himself as a conservative Democrat who aligns himself with the legacy of Murtha.

But Republicans are seeking to undermine Critz's political self image, pointing out that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) recently were hosts to a high-dollar fundraiser for Critz in Washington. (Republicans were quick to shop around this video of Van Hollen speaking at an anti-coal rally on Capitol Hill -- a position that wouldn't play well in southwestern Pennsylvania.) Vice President Joe Biden also recently visited Pennsylvania to campaign for Critz, though it's still unclear whether President Barack Obama will venture into the district. (Burns has Republican support from Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Dick Armey).

The fact that the 12^th is the only congressional district in America to have voted for John Kerry in 2004, but John McCain in 2008, ought to tell you how unpopular Barack Obama is here. These are the "bitter" Pennsylvanians, as candidate Obama put it, who "cling to guns or religion." Critz's ads note that he's pro-life and pro-gun, "That's not liberal," he says in his ads. Burns, on the other hand, sees his opponent's emphasis on such issues as "running away" from Democratic positions.

The economy is an important issue for the 12^th District (and most districts these days). Burns points out that while Critz received a hefty salary as Murtha's economic development director, unemployment in the district skyrocketed. That hasn't stopped Critz from making job creation an important part of his campaign. Factcheck.org recently called out Critz for misrepresenting Burns' position on jobs in his TV ads.

Still, perception is reality, and Critz is working hard to come across as a conservative "blue dog" Democrat, and it may just work. "Had the Democrats nominated any of the other candidates who were discussed, you would have handed the Republicans some issues that could have swung the race," said Mike Devaney, a political consultant based in Pittsburgh.

Republicans have had a lousy track record of winning these congressional special elections of late. Some of the losses were, no doubt, due to the toxic political environment that existed for Republicans in 2006-2008, and some of the losses were simply an anomaly, such as when Republicans split their votes between Dede Scozzafava and Doug Hoffman in a New York special election last year, allowing a Democrat to win the House seat. Democrats also have more money these days. Simply put, recent history is not on Burns' side.

The other problem Burns faces is that this special election comes on the same day as the Pennsylvania primary. And while there are several hotly contested Democratic races (including the Specter vs. Sestak Senate primary), the Republican primaries are merely pro forma. This, of course, means Democratic turnout will likely be much higher.

Burns dispels the notion that this will hurt him, telling Politics Daily, "I really believe that this is the race that is going to drive turnout." In terms of excitement, he may be right. The special election is the race where the resources have been most evenly matched.

Burns hopes to level the playing field by running a smart political operation, and has tapped general consultant John Brabender, who is also former Sen. Rick Santorum's top strategist, to help. He also brought in popular GOP operative Mike DuHaime, who, as Northeastern regional political director for the Bush-Cheney 2004 presidential election, helped develop get-out-the-vote operations.

Whether the national conservative zeitgeist wins the day, or the local Democratic institutional advantages are too much to overcome, one thing is certain: This race will be touted as a harbinger of things to come.