New Washington Senate Poll Shows Murray Ahead of Rossi by 17

Many of the polls on the Washington Senate race -- including one released Wednesday -- show Democratic incumbent Patty Murray easily besting the declared Republican candidates seeking her job, but facing a closer contest if former state senator and unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi got into the race.

The last three polls had these results: Rasmussen had Murray statistically tied with Rossi at 48 percent to 46 percent, SurveyUSA had Rossi ahead 52 percent to 42 percent, and Research 2000 put Murray ahead 52 percent to 41 percent.

Now comes an Elway poll conducted April 29 - May 2 that not only shows Murray ahead of the three announced candidates by 24 points or more but also leading Rossi 51 percent to 34 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

Nate Silver's analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com says his statistical model says "Murray should be about an 8-point favorite over Rossi based on her approval ratings and the political tilt of Washington state. It just doesn't think that the national environment has gotten quite bad enough for Democrats that a relatively noncontroversial incumbent like Murray would be favored to lose in a relatively Blue state."

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