Senate and Governor Races Shaping Up as Close So Far in Ohio, Illinois

The races for governor and senate in two key Midwestern states -- Ohio and Illinois -- are starting out as close matches but not so in Indiana where GOP senate primary victor Dan Coats has a big lead over his Democratic foe, according to three polls released Friday.

In Ohio, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, coming off his primary victory this week over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, is statistically tied with former Republican Rep. Rob Portman in their contest to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich, with Fisher ahead 43 percent to 42 percent with 4 percent preferring another choice and 11 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 5.

Both candidates have a high level of support from members of their own parties while Portman leads among unaffiliated voters 44 percent to 34 percent with the rest preferring another choice or undecided.

In the gubernatorial race, former Republican Rep. John Kasich is neck-and-neck with Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, leading him 46 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent preferring another candidate and 6 percent undecided, according to Rasmussen. This is about where the race stood at the end of March.

The Illinois senate race finds Republican Rep. Mark Kirk leading Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 41 percent to 38 percent with 21 percent undecided, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted May 3-5. Kirk has much stronger backing from fellow Republicans at 81 percent compared to the 65 percent level of support that Giannoulias gets from Democrats, possibly because of doubts that have arisen about him due to stories growing out of the collapse of his family's bank where he had once been an officer. Kirk leads among independents by 39 percent to 31 percent with 30 percent undecided.

Republican state Sen. Bill Brady is out in front of Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by 39 percent to 35 percent with an independent candidate getting 3 percent and 23 percent undecided, the Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey finds. Again, a GOP advantage at this point is that Brady is getting the support of 79 percent of Republicans while Quinn draws the backing of only 61 percent of Democrats. Independents favor Brady by a 38 percent to 27 percent margin, with 33 percent undecided.

The margin of error for both of those polls is 4 points.

In contrast to these races, former Republican Sen. Dan Coats, who won the GOP nomination this week, leads Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth by 51 percent to 36 percent with 6 percent favoring another choice and 8 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 5-6.

Neither candidate appears to be generating much enthusiasm right now, with only 13 percent of voters having a "very" favorable view of Coats and 9 percent holding that opinion of Ellsworth. This contest is another case of the GOP candidate having stronger support than the Democrat from his own party with 84 percent of Republicans backing Coats compared to 73 percent of Democrats falling in behind Ellsworth.

They are vying for the seat being given up by Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh.

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